2Q24 First Look – 6% Beat and Raised RoTE Guide | Back to B/S Growth?
Iñigo Vega (Jefferies) | 6% beat versus consensus at attributable profit level, driven by better top line, mainly fees, but NII also slightly ahead, supported by balance sheet growth in the quarter. Opex running in line and CoR trending better than the 30bp guidance. Upgraded FY24 NII guidance to HSD growth year-on-year (consensus at 6% year-on-year) and RoTE >17% (versus >16% before, consensus at 17.2%). €500m buyback starts today.
CaixaBank reported 2Q24 attributable profit of €1,670m, a 6% versus company-compiled consensus of €1,573m. PBT was also a 6% beat, with PPP a 5% beat. Income was a 3% beat and costs were in line with consensus.
-NII was 1% above cons., slightly up quarter-on-quarter and up 14% year-on-year. Customer spreads were down 6bp in the quarter, with loan yield down 3bp and client funds costs up 3bp.
-Wealth Management + Protection Insurance + Banking fees were 4% above consensus, with good dynamics across all three lines, including a recovery in banking fees, and trending up 4% year-on-year. Other revenues a €43m beat, driven by strong trading income and the end of the SRF contribution.
-Total costs were in line with consensus, and trending up 4% year-on-year.
-Total impairments at €365m versus consensus of €363m; an implied 23bps annualised cost of risk, trending better than the 30bp FY guidance.
-Customer loans were 1% above consensus, up 2% quarter-on-quarter and down 1% year-on-year. Positive growth dynamics across the segments, including mortgages and corporates.
-Customer deposits were 4% higher than consensus, up 5% q and up 6% year-on-year, driven by flows into wealth management and deposits (the latter benefited from seasonality in June).
-Capital: CET1 ratio of 12.2% was 10bp below consensus, with CET1 a slight miss, and RWAs in line with consensus. This includes the full deduction of the €500m buyback that starts today.
-Upgraded guidance: FY24 NII to grow high-single digit year-on-year (versus mid-single digit before, cons. at 6% year-on-year); FY24 RoTE > 17% (versus >16% before, cons. at 17.2%); FY24 NPL c2.7% (versus c3% before);
-No guidance change in: FY24 revenues from wealth management and protection revenues plus banking fees to grow LSD year-on-year (cons. at 3% year-on-year); FY24 costs to grow <5% year-on-year (cons. at 5% year-on-year); FY24 CoR at c0.30%; 2022-24 distribution capacity c€12bn;
