Jefferies | Caixabank | BUY | CABK SM | €5.12 | PT: €5.80 | % to PT: +13% | CaixaBank 1Q24 – In-line Prin and Guidance | 1Q24 in line at net income level. The 3% beat on NII is perhaps the major highlight (offset by small miss on others/LLCs), but very much confirming the dynamics already observed elsewhere hitherto. Upgraded FY24 NII guidance to MSD growth year-on-year (consensus already at 3% year-on-year) and RoTE >16% (consensus at 16.3%), with all previous guidance metrics unchanged.
CaixaBank reported 1Q24 net income of €1,005m, in line with company compiled consensus. PBT was also in line, with pre-prov profits a 1% beat. Income was a 1% beat and costs were in line with consensus.
• NII was 3% above cons., up 1% quarter-on-quarter and up 27% year-on-year.
• Wealth Management + Protection Insurance + Banking fees (equivalent to net fees + Insurance service result in the former disclosure) were in line with consensus, with other revenues 11% higher. These include the banking tax at €493m.
• Total costs were in line with consensus.
• Total impairments of €368m vs. consensus of €351m, 5% higher; an implied 29bps cost of risk.
• Customer loans were in line with consensus, flat quarter-on-quarter and down 2% year-on-year. Customer deposits were 1% higher than consensus, up 1% quarter-on-quarter and up 4% year-on-year.
• Capital: CET1 ratio of 12.3% was in line with consensus, with CET1 a 1% beat, and RWAs 1% higher than consensus.
• Upgraded guidance: FY24 NII to grow mid-single digit year-on-year (versus in line with FY23 before, consensus was already at 3% year-on-year growth) and FY24 RoTE> 16% (versus > 15% before, consensus at 16.3%).
• Maintained guidance: FY24 revenues from wealth management and protection revenues plus banking fees to grow low-single-digit year-on-year; FY24 costs to grow <5% year-on-year; FY24 CoR c0.30%; FY24 NPL c3%; 2022-24 distribution capacity €12bn.
