Ibercaja| The number of mortgages on homes granted in Spain fell by -29.6% year-on-year in September, the average amount remained stable (0.0% at €143,186) and the total amount granted fell by -29.7%. So far this year, with data accumulated from January to September, the fall in the number of mortgages granted is -17.2%, in the average amount -2.1% and in the total amount granted -18.6%. The number of mortgages granted in twelve months had reached a peak of 467,000 in November 2022. By September 2023, this figure had fallen to 404,000.
One of the best pieces of news is that the pace of mortgage rate rises is slowing and that we may be close to their ceiling. In the last quarter (September compared to June), the mortgage rate rose only 7 b.p. compared to 20 b.p. in the second quarter, 33 b.p. in the first quarter and 66 b.p. in the fourth quarter of 2022. The 12-month Euribor is stabilising and so far in November is even lower than in previous months, averaging 4.03% compared to 4.16% in October and 4.15% in September.
The first step towards stabilising the mortgage market is for interest rates to reach a ceiling and for there to be more visibility, as it seems difficult for the European Central Bank to tighten monetary policy even further in a context of weak growth and moderating inflationary pressures. Despite this, we believe that it is too early to consider that the floor has been reached and we may end the year at around 390,000 mortgages granted compared to 464,000 in 2022. In 2024 we will probably see a moderation in the falls, as wage improvements allow a small recovery in housing affordability after the sharp deterioration of the last year.
