Theo Smid (Atradius) | We do not expect a major shift in production strategy following Covid-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine conflict. It could lead to some strategic reorientation, but no major step back on the globalisation ladder. The most important argument is that the key rationale of global value chains – labour cost arbitrage opportunities – still holds and the alternatives to GVCs are not necessarily better.
Pablo Pardo (Washington) | Dean of the Blatavnik School of Government, Ngaire Woods is one of the people closest to Robert Keohane, of Princeton University, one of the most influential international relations theorists in the world. Woods, whose doctoral thesis was on European monetary union, has specialised in global governance and the role of multilateral institutions, two questions which have been the centre of debate following the victory of Donald Trump and Brexit.
Globalisation is a phenomenon with very old roots and which still has a lot of life left in it. According to a report by CaixaBank Research, we could be in the aftermath of the so-called second wave of globalisation and that, in the event of a new drive towards greater globalisation, we could shortly enter into the third wave
The so called populist uprising in the west is a rejection of one aspect of globalisation, the power of the supra-national institutions and their policies. “An alternative system has appeared to offset or undermine the existing one and, it is for the many outside the political class rather than the few inside, “summarises Mark Tinker head of AXA IM Framlington Equities Asia. Technology is offering new platforms to do what the elite used to control.
“…One of the reasons for the high level of youth unemployment in Spain has to do with the fact that companies hardly get involved in the dual training system,” explains Hermann Simon the chairman of Simon-Kucher, the preferred consultancy firm of the “hidden champions,” those German mid-cap companies which compete globally. “Spain’s level of innovation is very weak…the whole country cannot live just off tourism services.”
The imminent agreement between the EU and the US, called the TTIP, is dying on the side of both the US and Europe. The two candidates for the White House have expressed their scepticism, one with more than the other. And in Europe, only Merkel has stood firm, but this is weakening her politically and taking away her social democrat allies.
The reality being faced in the US and abroad is that the current world order has failed to deliver its promises.
UBS | Global trade in goods and services has risen to a record share of the world economy in real terms. In nominal terms it has stagnated – which basically tells us that the price of traded goods and services is falling relative to the price of non-traded goods and services. Hardly surprising given where oil is.
La Caixa Research | Which are the effects of digitalisation on the global economy?
MADRID | By Ana Fuentes | Trying to compete with emerging markets is not enough: Those EU countries trying to re-launch their industrial sectors in order to boost economic recovery need to go through technological changes, Yao Yang explains to The Corner. Dean of the China National School of Development and Director of the China Center for Economic Research, he believes that austerity in Europe has not been in vain. On the same day, business-research group Conference Board reported that Chinese growth will dip to 5.5% in 2015-19, Prof. Yang points out that such a decline would not mean any catastrophe.