Morgan Stanley | The tech team is expecting a complicated year, with a slowdown in growth and inflation and interest rates still at high levels. Although rates will become more moderate, they believe it will be difficult for stocks to perform well if earnings expectations come under pressure.
For that reason, they prefer to stick with defensive stocks. ASML, SAP and Sage. Further along, it will make sense to add cycle, when the consensus estimates are more realistic and the companies’ comments are more moderate (stocks like Amadeus, Dassault, Nemetschek, Adyen). Today they are lowering their stance on TeamViewer to UW after its recent performance and Capgemini to EW.
Amadeus (OW, T.P €68.50/share): The analyst remains constructive with respect to the sustainability of the recovery in air traffic and how the re-opening and fewer restrictions can offset a weaker macro for it, which has historically not been very cyclical. That said, the consensus expects growth of approximately 22% in 2023. This may turn out to be optimistic without any hike in capacity on the part of the airlines. However, at 50 euros/share, the analyst believes this risk is already in the price.
