In Europe, in November, the fall in natural gas demand was 19%, much more than the 15% drop estimated by the EU. In addition, November is the first month in which we can see how the residential and commercial segment is reacting to higher energy prices.
Demand from the industrial customer has already been falling for several months (-28% vs 5 year average) and has not been surprising. But the residential/commercial which is the largest component is the one that remained to be seen how it responded and the level of reduction in demand has been very negative.
On the other hand, Liquefied Natural Gas imports remain very high and therefore inventories have remained at the high end of the historical range. Morgan Stanley analysts maintain their estimates, so they see very little risk in the gas futures curve:
