elections

World economy 4th November 2020

Market Flash – US elections

The list of potential outcomes is narrowing, but we may still not have a result today. While some races looked closer this morning, we are down to 6 states that will determine the outcome. Right now, Joe Biden is ahead in Wisconsin and Michigan, which, if Biden holds Nevada, would be enough to put him in the White House. If Biden does not win all three, the scenarios include Pennsylvania, which might need until Friday. We should have results for North Carolina and Georgia today, with both potentially going to Trump.

Relevant News Item 4th November 2020

All Up In The Air In The US: The “Blue Wave” Has Not Happened, There Is Still No Clear Winner

With the counting still to be completed (some states like Pennsylvania and Michigan will continue to count votes until the end of the week), the candidates are very tied (238 Biden vs 213 Trump) against Biden’s victory that had been discounting the markets. Breaking all the democratic rules, Donald Trump calls himself the winner and asks that the postal ballot count be stopped (about 5 million votes), since it is a “fraud to the American public” and “an embarrassment to our country”.

Relevant News Item 3rd November 2020

US Elections: In The Short Term, The Best For The Market Is The Blue Wave

Joe Biden is the clear favourite to win the US elections, with in addition a fair chance of a “blue wave”. In the opinion of Gilles Möec, chief economist at AXA IM, given the need of another fiscal push, in the short term, it is probably the optimal outcome for the market especially if the results come quickly. Questions on the long-term US policy stance will come later.

World politics 29th October 2020

What the US Election Means for the Liberal World Order

Vittorio Emanuele Parsi & Valerio Alfonso Bruno | In 1992, Francis Fukuyama published his controversial best-seller, “The End of History and the Last Man,” arguing that liberal democracy is the final form of government for all nations. Almost three decades later, G. John Ikenberry, one of the most influential theorists of liberal internationalism today, in “A World Safe for Democracy” suggests that the liberal world order, if reformed and reimagined, remains possibly the best “international space” for democracies to flourish and prosper. After all, reasons Ikenberry, what do its illiberal challengers like China or Russia have to offer?

In the World, World politics 28th October 2020

History Will Tell If The Coronavirus Is To Trump What Hurricane Katrina Was To George W. Bush’s Legacy

Regina Borromeo (Robeco ) | Since the summer, our view has been that voting momentum will follow the path of the pandemic and the economic recovery. Trump’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic has been compared to George W. Bush’s mishandling of the disaster response to Hurricane Katrina, which coincided with a fall in the President’s polling and approval ratings. National polls have seen Biden extend his lead to over 10% recently, a larger spread compared to 2016 when Hilary Clinton ran against Trump.

In the World, World politics 26th October 2020

The Race Is Tightening Between Mr Trump And Mr Biden

The final presidential debate between Mr Trump and Mr Biden was yesterday evening. This final head to head between the candidates before the election on 3 November came after the second debate was cancelled due to Trump’s infection with coronavirus. Despite the chaotic back and forth between both candidates during the first debate, there are notably different views between both candidates about corporate taxes, energy and US-China trade

In the World, World economy 18th October 2020

The Scale Of US Election Spending Explained In Five Graphs

William Horncastle via The Conversation | The amount of money spent on US elections eclipses the annual total economic output of some small countries. The total spending by candidates, political parties and independent campaign groups in the 2016 race was US$6.5 billion – comparable to the GDP that year of Monaco, Kosovo or Liechtenstein. The 2020 election cycle is forecast to smash previous spending records, with the Center for Responsive Politics estimating it will cost US$11 billion. That would be comparable to the 2019 GDP of Equatorial Guinea or Chad.

In the World, World economy 15th August 2020

The Technological Threat Intensifies In The Face Of The US Presidential Election

Escalating tension between the United States and China will encourage volatility as the Presidential Election approaches and measures taken against Chinese technology will be the focus. Investors underestimate domestic policy support for Chinese technology, as well as the political risks to American technology, explains Evan Brown, Head of Multi Asset Strategy at UBS AM.

In the World, World politics 6th June 2020

The Crisis of Presidentiality in the US

Peter Isackson | Can the oligarchs in Wall Street and Washington — a class that Trump himself belongs to despite his continuing to play the outsider — bring back some semblance of order in the face of growing discontent? Are there any imaginable reforms they could agree to and which the malcontents could accept? Or can they find some kind of improvised fix just to survive until the elections? The nation awaits a “presidential” response.

In the World, World politics 31st May 2020

The 2020 Pandemic Election

Saurabh Jha via Fair Observer| When the COVID-19 pandemic is dissected in the 2020 presidential election debates, Donald Trump will be at a disadvantage. The coronavirus has killed over 100,000 Americans and maimed thousands more. The caveat is that deaths per capita, rather than total deaths, better measure national failure, and by that metric the US fares better than Belgium, Italy and the United Kingdom.

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