Santander | It is one of the first headlines from last night’s FOMC minutes. Fed staff members go from assigning a near 50% probability, to now forecasting a mild recession. With the Fed also nearing the end of the cycle, it is no surprise that some dissenting voices are beginning to appear, opening the door to new bouts of volatility that have not favoured the credit market (MOVE/Main correlation of…
Morgan Stanley | The probability of recession especially in the US has increased for most investors in recent weeks. Indeed, our analyst Ellen Zentner has revised her growth estimates downwards (on a 4Q/4Q basis): -10bps for 2023 (to 0.3%) and -20bps in 2024 (to 1%). Even in the case of avoiding technical recession, the impact on the labour market would be unavoidable: the macro team expects new jobs to be…
Link Securities | According to the German central bank, the Bundesbank, in its monthly bulletin, and reported yesterday by Europa Press, the German economy will probably enter recession in 1Q2023 as the evolution of GDP will be weaker than in 4Q2022, when activity contracted by 0.2%. The Bundesbank also says it is confident that this contraction in economic activity will be milder than it expected in its December projections. According…
The IMF’s Managing Director, Kristalina Georgieva, warned on Sunday that the world faces a “tougher” year in 2023 than in 2022, saying that a third of the world economy will be affected by recession this year. “The US, China, and the eurozone are all slowing simultaneously. Half of the European Union will be in recession and over the next few months, China’s growth will be negative and its impact on…
Christian Nolting (Deutsche Bank) | The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries peaked in mid-June, then fell sharply in July before rising again in August. The decline for Treasuries with shorter maturities was less pronounced in July, causing the yield curve to invert, which many investors regard as a precursor to recession. We forecast that the U.S. economy will enter a mild recession in H1 2023. Whereas growth concerns have been…
Miguel Navascués | Although there seems to be no awareness of it, the current problem in the world economy is of cosmic proportions, a problem for which we have no close antecedents. We have huge pockets of liquidity, originated to alleviate the contraction of the pandemic, now that inflation is rebounding with great vigour, and a recession that is already being announced in some indicators; what some translate as an…
The Spanish economy went into technical recession in the second quarter of the year after registering a 17.8% drop in GDP between April and June. This is the biggest quarterly fall in the National Statistics Institute (INE)’s historical series which began in 1970. That said, this decline has been less than was anticipated at end-July. At that point, and in the absence of some data, the INE estimated that GDP would have declined by 18.5% in the second quarter.
The economic growth of both economies has fallen sharply in the Q2 of the year due to the coronavirus restriction measures. Germany’s GDP saw a decrease of 11.7% on yoy rate. The country was plunged into the deepest recession in post-war history. On the other side of the Atlantic, the US GDP was down 32.9% in annualised terms, the biggest fall since the current historical series began in 1947. Spain and France accompany them with record contractions of 22,1% and 19%, respectively.
DWS | There are a few reasons to think that unlike the economy, inflation could see a V-shaped recovery. Recently published inflation data seem to confirm this theoretical view. Without taking into account the energy component, which, thanks to the oil price, fluctuated wildly in 2020, the inflation rate in the Eurozone was 1.3% in June. That is exactly the same level as at the beginning of the year.
Yesterday, it was confirmed the historical collapse of Spanish GDP: it declined 5.2% until March due to Covid-19, its biggest quarterly fall recorded in the historical series. With a contraction of the activivity in the second quarter greater than that in the first taken for granted, Spain is facing a recession. In this context, the Bank of Spain argues that the only way to bring the country’s accounts back under control after the pandemic will be the combination of fiscal adjustment and structural reforms.