Martin Moryson (DWS ) | The data published yesterday by the Federal Statistical Office confirms the 2.2% decline in German economic output in the first quarter. This had already been calculated in a previous estimate. Combined with the last negative growth quarter of 2019, Germany is now officially in recession. However, Q1 is only the beginning. The real drama will only become evident in the figures for the Q2. Here we expect a 10 percent decline.
Philppe Waechter (Ostrum AM) The main point on the ECB meeting is the large uncertainty contained in the GDP forecasts. Last March, the ECB forecast was +0.8% for 2020. Today, Christine Lagarde said the gdp was expected to drop between -6 and -12% for 2020. That’s a huge revision reflecting uncertainty for the foreseeable future.
As expected, the 4% quarterly contraction in the Spanish economy estimated by the consensus of analysts has been overtaken by reality. GDP registered a historical collapse of 5.2% in the first quarter due to the Covid-19 crisis. Until now, the biggest quarterly fall in GDP was in the first quarter of 2009 (-2.6%).
Funcas | The sectors most directly affected by the shutdown – retail, hotel accommodation, restaurants, cultural and sporting activities and personal services – account for 15% of GDP alone. And they also have a ‘snowball effect’ on the rest of the sectors equivalent to 6% of GDP, according to our forecasts’ update for 2020 and 2021.
A glimmer of hope in the macro scenario managed by Banco Santander’s Research team. Compared to more somber estimates such as those from the Bank of Spain or BBVA Research, the experts at Santander Corporate & Investment do believe in a V-shaped recovery.Banco Santander’s base scenario envisages a 5.2% fall in Spanish GDP this year compared with 8.3% growth in 2021.
Unigestion | The current shock that the investment world is facing has three unique features: it is exogenous, it will likely be temporary, and its effect on the real economy is extremely uncertain. According to our core scenario, 2020 should see the first global recession since the Great Financial Crisis. This scenario assumes that the quarantine will have a limited impact on financial services, insurance, utilities and healthcare services, and leaves 20% of usual energy consumption.
The coronavirus crisis could cost Spain 3.9% of GDP, in a mild scenario. But if the current containment and crisis measures are extended for three months, GDP could fall by up to 6 percentage points. And if they continue until summer, by almost 10. This is one of the conclusions of the report presented yesterday by Nuno Fernandes, Professor of Finance at IESE Business School.
Oriol Carreras and Eduard Llorens i Jimeno (CaixaBank Research) | All the indicators suggest that next year will be defined by the same key elements. As we can see in the first chart, to the extent that global growth, and that of the euro area in particular, remains contained, we do not expect to see a significant surge in exports. Therefore, the foreign sector will continue to provide very modest contributions to growth. Moreover, the global environment will remain a source of risk.
The Spanish economy grew 0.4% in the second quarter, one tenth less than in the previous quarter and also a tenth less than advanced at the end of July. It is the lowest rate of quarterly growth in three years, according to the National Accounts published this Monday by the National Institute for Statistics (INE).
Bankia Estudios | Spanish GDP slows more than expected. The provisional GDP data for Q219 has disappointed, by registering a quarterly growth of 0.5%, one tenth below our forecast and the Bank of Spain´s estimate.