BBVA Research | The recovery of the Spanish economy will continue during the two years 2019-2020. In fact, and despite the risks which still hang over the scenario, growth expectations have been revised upwards one tenth to 2.3% for 2019 and remain at 1.9% for 2020.
Bankinter | Three pieces of positive macro data on the Spanish economy: GDP grew in the first quarter of 2019 by +2.4% yoy compared to the +2.3% expected and +2.3% in the previous quarter. In inter-quarterly rate accelerated unexpectedly to +0.7% from +0.6% in Q42018. Both are double that of the Eurozone and the 28.
Santander Research | The performance of the Eurozone economy in 2018 was far from meeting expectations. Having exceeded expectations in 2017, with GDP growth yoy of 2.5% – the strongest since the 3.1% in 2007 – the economy registered a strong slowdown in 2018 with caused up to a 1.8% fall yoy in GDP. Although, probably, the growth levels of 2017 were not sustainable – taking into account the economic fundamentals of the Eurozone and the performance of the rest of the world – , the economic slowdown was strong, especially in the second half of 2018. In quarterly terms, GDP went from growing a quarterly average of o.7% in 2017 to only 0.4% in the first half of 2018 and a quarterly average of 0.2% in 2018.
The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) has again downgraded global economic growth for 2019 to 3.3%. However, the most striking point was the strong downgrade of Eurozone GDP growth, which it now forecasts at only 1% when only a few months ago it was expecting 1.8%. Germany and Italy are the countries that emerge worse from this severe downgrade of growth.
Eurozone GDP growth in Q1 arrived in line with a GDP tracker at +0.4% on a quarterly basis estimated by AXA IM strategists (versus a consensus of 0.6%) and reflected “the weakness in industrial production in several member states during January and February.”
Spain is far from complying on deficit and State debt targets. It’s still surprising that out of a total amount of debt issued equivalent to 137% of GDP, there can be an official debt of 98%, thanks to a cut which, under the EU’s conditions themselves, is fully approved. This growing divergence has been there for years, particularly since the PP entered government in November 2011.
If I haven’t got the wrong end of the stick, Italy plans is to create a parallel currency to the euro, guaranteed by the Italian government, but which I don’t know who will control. A Bank of Italy? The government would issue these BOT, endorse them with the BI, which would give it the money to be shared out amongst the unpaid creditors. It seems a lot like Helicopter Money.
While the EU statistics office Eurostat said on Tuesday GDP in the eurozone rose 0.6% quarter-on-quarter in the three months to September and 2.5% year-on-year, the EC revised yesterday its growth forecast for the region to 2.2%, markedly higher for this and next year. Therefore, this Commission’s expectation in 2017 is well justified, based on published data from Eurostat.
Italy will choose their next government in 2018. Italy is subject to the same four issues present in many Eurozone member states, but with greater intensity: low growth (with productivity gains gone AWOL before the Global Financial Crisis), high public debt, a weak banking sector and political fragility. Improvements on all four fronts have characterized 2017.