Bankinter : Final CPI December 2023 confirms +3.1% year-on-year (from +3.2% year-on-year previous and expected). Underlying CPI also confirms +3.8% year-on-year (from 4.5% year-on-year before). In month-on-month terms, 0.0% month-on-month (from -0.3% month-on-month in November) and in the Underlying +0.2% month-on-month (from +0.1% month-on-month in November).
Assessment: No surprises, preliminary data are confirmed. This is fully in line with our estimates in Strategy 2024 (year-end +3.1% year-on-year and annual average +3.6% year-on-year). The spread between the Underlying and General Rate narrows to +0.7pp (from +1.3pp in November). We expect a slight year-on-year pick-up in January, although the withdrawal of inflation support will be more gradual in the year than anticipated (e.g. in January VAT on electricity rises to 10% from 5% and VAT on Gas will rise to 10% until March, but the VAT rebate/elimination on some basic foodstuffs is extended and public transport subsidies are extended). Our estimate for 2024 is 3% year-on-year on average and 2.3% year-on-year for 2025.
