Bankinter : October’s final CPI is confirmed at +3.5% year-on-year preliminary and equal to the previous one. The Underlying figure moderates to +5.2% year-on-year, in line with the preliminary announcement and from +5.8% previously. On a month-on-month basis, the anticipated data are also confirmed; the headline rate rises +0.3% year-on-year and the core +0.4% year-on-year.
Assessment: The final data confirms a positive evolution in October, as the preliminary data already showed, largely due to the moderation of fuel prices with a positive impact on Transport prices. Food prices are up but less than a year earlier. The underlying rate is still +1.7% above the general rate. We maintain our expectations of a rebound in the coming months in view of the end of inflation control measures. Our projections point to an average CPI of +3.8% in 2023e, +3.6% in 2024 estimated and 2.4% in 2025 estimated.
