UK vs EU, and Australia, China, Japan, US right now

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for the UK decreased 0.4 percent in both October and September, after decreasing 0.5 percent in August.

Jean-Claude Manini, The Conference Board Senior Economist for Europe, said:

“The slight improvement in stock prices did not offset the further and broad based deterioration of confidence measures. Coupled with the persistent weakness in the LEI, current economic conditions suggest that the British economy is at risk of following the Euro Area toward a contraction of economic activity in the short term.”

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for the Euro Area increased by 0.2 percent in October to 106.0 (2004 = 100), following a 1.1 percent decrease in September and a 1.3 percent decrease in August.

Mr Manini commented:

“The modest increase of the LEI for the Euro Area was not enough to pull it out of recession territory, though it does suggest that the possible contraction in economic activity may be short and shallow. However, weak confidence and nervous financial markets can still drag the economy into a deeper contraction if policy responses are not appropriate and adequate. Sustained declines in the LEIs for France, Germany, and Spain are reinforcing the signal from the Euro Area LEI.”