Iñigo Vega (Jefferies) | Spanish Banks’ 3Q24 earnings season kicked off with BKT; we preview SAN, UNI, CABK and BBVA. We expect the focus to remain on domestic NII resilience despite falling rates. While fees are expected to remain under pressure in the quarter, asset quality shows no signs of deterioration. We see the NII miss at BKT as idiosyncratic and don’t read-across to other peers. No major changes in...

Morgan Stanley | Our analyst expects the NII of Spanish banks to fall by 0.9% quarter-on-quarter on average due to seasonality, while the growth in deposits will offset lower rates in the short term. He believes that the guidance for 2024 will remain unchanged. Looking ahead to the numbers for 2025/26 and following the downgrade of the sector this week, he reduces the Euribor estimate from 2.5% to 2.25% on...

Norbolsa | The Dutch bank celebrates this Monday’s CMD at 14:00, and announces that it expects total revenue growth of between 4-5% per annum between 2024 and 2027, with fee income expected to exceed €5 billion, leaving RoTE at around 14% over the same period.

Morgan Stanley | Our analyst A. S. reiterates the OW on European banks as, among other things, he believes that earnings are going to be more resilient than the market is discounting. The savings rate in Europe is at 15% (the highest in the world) and should be able to be monetised in a positive rate environment into deposits and asset management products, rather than the bond market. He estimates...

Jefferies | The Bank of Spain announced the intention to gradually implement a 100bp CCyB for the banks, alongside a revision of the methodology through which the buffer is set. The announcement should not come as a surprise, given recent debate during the 1Q24 earnings season. We see a manageable impact from the higher capital requirements, and no immediate risk to the banks’ stated CET1 ratio targets or capital distribution...

ARISTÓBULO DE JUAN, FORMER DIRECTOR GENERAL OF INSPECTION AT THE BANK OF SPAIN | Once upon a time there was a financial system that appeared to be in good health. Everyone knew how important banking was for a country. For it was the conduit of the payment system and the transmitter of monetary policy. It was also the repository and manager of the country’s idle resources and the channel for...