Emisores | Senior executives at S&P 500 index companies earned a total salary package in 2023 that was 13% higher than in the previous year, according to an analysis by Associated Press based on data from Equilar. For CEOs, the rise was 12.6%, to an average annual total compensation of $16.3 million – the equivalent of €14.99 million – which was 200 times more than the average salary earned by…
Earnings revisions moved into negative territory last week, implying that there are more downward revisions than upward revisions, a dynamic that Morgan Stanley analysts say “typically precedes EPS consolidation”. In that sense, they point out that “EPS consolidation in a growth scare environment rather than a recession is typically 3% on average … and spanning an average period of 3 months. Applying this historical precedent to the current environment results…
T.C | From today until Thursday, companies representing 40% of the S&P500 will present their results for the first quarter of this year. Alphabet and Microsoft today, Tuesday. Apple and Facebook on Wednesday, Amazon on Thursday… and expectations are very high indeed. For example, in the case of Apple, a 32% advance in profits is discounted, while in the case of Tesla, which presents on Tuesday, a +71% increase in both revenues and profits is expected.
DWS | How bad could things get for corporate earnings, both in the U.S. and worldwide? In the face of a global health emergency, the short answer is that it remains hard to tell. Large parts of the world are under Covid-19 lockdown, delivering tremendous short-term shocks to the supply side and threatening to bring demand destruction on a massive scale. The disruptions will be comparable or worse than after September 11, 2001 and the onset of the financial crisis in 2008.
Intermoney | The S&P500 index has gained almost 35% since its lows recorded in December 2018. The Stoxx Europe 600 surged about 25%, approaching its highest records. Markets have priced in the reduction of the main sources of uncertainty on a global scale. Now, it is key that macroeconomic indicators end up confirming the improvement advanced by investors.
Yves Bonzon (Julius Baer) | In over three decades, we have not witnessed so much bearishness in the investor’s community, as the S&P500 index is a few percentage points away from an all-time high.
Stefan Scheuer (Allianz GI) | What will the Federal Reserve do? This is the question most asked by investors. In the US, the labour market remains in shape, households remain wiling to spend and inflation data has been better than expected.
DWS | How should a hedge fund have positioned itself if it had known the U.S. Federal Reserve’s (Fed’s) decisions and press release a day ahead of the market? Until lunchtime on Wednesday noon its staff might have reasonably concluded that the material contained preciously little actionable information. On paper, it would have all looked exactly as expected, leaving limited scope for any meaningful market reaction. This is not, of course, how things actually turned out.
Global equities have held up fairly well in light of the generally negative news flow, entirely driven by the United States, where stocks are up 9.6% year to date, while the euro area, Japan and emerging markets have underperformed. In this context, the Research team from AXA IM points that earnings momentum remains “robust” with the second quarter earnings season posting “positive growth” and “surprising” on the upside across most major regions.
What are the reasons for the apparent abrupt change in mood on the stock markets? Does this unexpected sell-off mean the end of the bull market? What seems clear is that the environment has changed, volatility is back, and 2018 is looking more complex for investors given central banks that are reducing stimulus.