“… From the 18th century to the present, apart from occasional skirmishes, what we call the West has unilaterally assaulted Russia on 5 serious occasions. Charles XII of Sweden, an undisputed military genius of poor political skill, attacked the Russia of Peter the Great, crossed from the Baltic into the Ukraine with his troops, and, only there at Poltava, in 1709, the Swedish King and his Ukrainian allies were defeated….
ASE Group | Russian gas supplies to Europe from Russia have increased since the war broke out because of long-term contracts, in place between European buyers and Russia’s Gazprom, which include strict commitment clauses. All parties are committed to respecting them or face serious losses. This is why Grazprom is avoiding direct economic sanctions from Europe.In any case, Russian flows are not back to normal for this time of year….
Good news? In Russia, JP Morgan claims to have processed interest payments on two of the country’s sovereign issues, raising expectations of default on its debt for the first time since 1998. This has not prevented Standard & Poor’s from downgrading the country’s credit rating by one notch to CC, just two notches above default, in its belief that the country’s debt is “highly vulnerable to default”. In China, according…
Poland’s Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki has called from Kiev for “an end to the tragedy” in Ukraine, as he arrived in the country’s capital along with his counterparts from the Czech Republic, Pietr Fiala, and Slovenia, Janez Jansa. “We must stop this tragedy as soon as possible,” said Morawiecki, according to the Polish news agency PAP, on his arrival in the Ukrainian capital, where he plans to meet the country’s…
Alicia García Herrero (Natixis) | Asia is far from Ukraine, but the conflict with Russia has rippling effects far beyond borders. From the SWIFT ban to the chip blockade, the West and Asian economies have further sanctioned Russia. Although the financial linkages between Russia and Asia are limited, spillovers on the economy cannot be discounted. In this note, we analyze the impact of Russia’s aggression in Ukraine on key non-financial…
Fernando González Urbaneja | Recent polls show that Spaniards’ appreciation of NATO has taken a decisive turn; whereas previously there was a high level of mistrust of a defensive and armed military organisation, with a rejection rate of close to 50 per cent, acceptance now stands at over 70 per cent. Rejection of the invasion is overwhelming, more than 90%, compared to an irrelevant and extravagant 1% who see it…
Fernando González Urbaneja | The European and US deployment to help Ukraine and stifle Putin’s Russia is not as rhetorical or irrelevant as some imagined a week ago. Putin’s unilateral and criminal war is being met with the patriotism of Ukrainians, determined to defend their country and their freedom, but also with the active revulsion of most of the community of nations. The debate in the United Nations Extraordinary Assembly…
Spain, after being one of the last European countries to close its airspace to Russian airlines, will limit the sending of offensive weapons to Ukraine just to the agreement adopted by the European Union. It does not plan to increase the defence budget, as other EU governments will do in response to the Russian invasion of Ukrainian territory. This was announced on Monday by Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, in an…
Fernando González Urbaneja | Russian journalist Masha Gessen wrote a biography of Putin ten years ago (“The Man Without a Face” Debate) which was recommended reading then and even more so now. In chapter 3 (Autobiography of a Thug) she sketches the character that Putin’s unofficial biographers did not hesitate to highlight when praising his character. During his youth in Leningrad (now and formerly St. Petersburg) he behaved like a…
Tatiana Orlova (Oxford Economics) | In the early hoursoftoday, Russian military forces attacked military targets across Ukraine. Border guards reported that Ukraine’s territory was being shelled from five regions, including Crimea and Belarus. Due to events over the past 24 hours, with Russia now intent on installing a “friendly” government in Ukraine, we have moved our global baseline in line with our scenario for a full-scale invasion. Although a protracted…