Telefónica is continuing with its plans for cutting group debt – estimated at 50 billion euros – by divesting stakes in some of its subsidiaries and ruling out any major new acquisitions. On the one hand, the company is still preparing to list a minority stake in its UK mobile subsidiary O2 towards year-end, on the other they are considering to sell Telefonica Argentina.
The precipitous drop in oil prices in particular has forced rentier states, which were able to count on massive energy profits to fund generous state largesse up until a few years ago, to diversify their economic relationships with Europe and the rest of the world. These profits allowed states like Saudi Arabia and Iran to get by with incredibly inefficient economies, which officials in both countries are now actively restructuring in order to stimulate real growth and attract international business.
BARCLAYS | Argentina’s incoming finance minister, Alfonso Prat-Gay, has made some important statements about short-term economic policies. We think that his comments are steps in the right direction and indicate pragmatism, in that they seek a solution to economic problems while addressing restrictions imposed by social, political, and economic realities.
The election of Mauricio Macri, the candidate for the Cambiemos (Let’s Change) coalition, as president has been welcomed as a potential turning point in Argentina’s financial, political and foreign policy outlooks. The country’s economic performance has been overshadowed by high inflation and isolation from global capital markets, and planned reforms will likely boost its exports and could accelerate investment in areas such as infrastructure and the nascent shale gas sector.
UBS | With 66% of cast votes officially counted, Mauricio Macri has defeated the officialist party’s candidate Daniel Scioli with 53.46% of votes vs 46.54% in the second round of Argentina’s presidential election. At the time of writing, Scioli had already conceded defeat.
ATHENS | Via Macropolis | It should come as no surprise that in a the country where a large part of the political establishment is comfortable with the notion that some sort of conspiracy drove the country to bankruptcy, the same key players should spend the last few days in a hopeless debate on the recent developments in Argentina.
MADRID | The Corner | Many got it all wrong: the problem with Argentina is not the so-called “second default in 12 years,” but U.S. District Judge Thomas Griesa’s ruling. The country will need to pay holdouts $1.33 billion plus interest. And that sets an extremely dangerous precedent for future restructuring processes of sovereign debt. No bond-holder will accept a haircut knowing that, at the end of the day, he could ask for the full amount. (Fig left: Argentina’s national reserves; right: sovereign CDS).
MADRID | The Corner | Juicy day for European markets, peripheral and emerging countries, after Portuguese BES announced €3.6 billion losses in 1S14, which reduce its CT1 to 5%, below the 7% asked in Portugal. Besides, we’ll be very attentive to how Argentina’s so-called “second default in 12 years” (we are working on an analysis explaining why the real problem lies on the US judge’s sentence) unfolds –late on Thursday S&P rated the country as selective default after it didn’t come to an agreement with a group of its bond-holders. Stay tuned!
Amid an important devaluation of its currency, and with its central bank rapidly losing reserves, Argentina is entering a critical stage as it attempts to avoid a new economic crisis. In November 2013, Argentine President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner decided to limit her public appearances and delegate to new ministers. Economy Minister Axel Kicilloff and Chief Minister Jorge Capitanich were tasked with revising the economic course of a government that is starting to show weaknesses. Today, not only is the Argentine public worried, but so too is the international community.
MADRID | By Luis Martí | You’ll probably know by now that the Court has turned down the Argentinian request to hear an appeal of a lower court decision. The decision established that the unwillingness of Argentina to pay defaulted holdouts, while duly servicing restructured debt, violated the spirit of the pari passu clause. Well, there’s a lot to be said for this interpretation, and a lot against.