FAIRFAX | By Tyler Cowen via Marginal Revolution | It is hard to look at pictures of Kiev and think “that looks like a safe sovereign credit,” but even with the recent run-up Ukraine still has a market-implied default hazard at only about 60% of the level of Argentina.
MADRID | By Francisco López | Argentina’s devaluation contagion pulled downwards such different assets as Brazil Stock Exchange, Argentinian or South African currency , or even Indonesia’s bonds. In Spain, the Ibex fell again by 1.1% losing 6.7% points in just six days, which means its hardest time in past twelve months. When panic spreads, investors do not consider each countries’ economic circumstaces individually.
MADRID| By J.P. Marín Arrese | Buenos Aires acted in the right way by bridging the gap between its currency real value and the fake official quote. Yet, in doing so, it has openly exposed the emerging countries’ vulnerability. For the last years, their expansion delivery showed an outstanding record harnessed by cheap money conditions and renewed risk appetite, once the financial crisis looked firmly under control.
MADRID | By The Corner team | The Argentinian currency’s fall is the biggest in 12 years with a yearly drop of 17%. Although the key for European peripheral countries may be other countries’ contagion like Brazil, Mexico or Venezuela, their exposure to Argentina is moderate. In the case of Portugal it is almost near zero. And what about Spain, specifically?
NEW YORK | By JP Morgan’s Foreign Exchange team | A devaluation unanchored (at least so far) by a needed broader anti-inflation plan can only induce expectations of further devaluation in Argentina (if the government is effectively adopting a free-float) or a resumption of reserve loss (when and if the government intends to subsequently resume its Foreign Exchange intervention).
MADRID | By Fernando G. Urbaneja and Julia Pastor | Repsol is a “rara avis”, a private and listed firm, with public shareholders and indirectly supported by the Spanish government.
MADRID | By Julia Pastor | Repsol’s Board of Directors will consider a proposal from the Argentinian government according to which Repsol would drop their dispute on YPF without any economic compensation and be given in return some stake of a joint venture company to develop 6% of Vaca Muerta’s field oil and gas reserves.
Argentina has so far led investors to believe that it is ready to default if necessary to avoid the New York court’s ruling. That reaction, although less than surprising, would worsen further its lack of credibility.
MADRID | Lenovo, the Chinese PC giant, recently carried out two capital injections in its Spanish subsidiary. According to the business daily Cinco Días, on April 24 there was a capital increase of €36 million, with the total capital subscribed resulting in €37.47 million. A few days earlier, the company had made another injection of capital of €1.29 million. Isla Ramos, CEO of Lenovo in Spain, explained that such capitalisation is linked…
BNP Paribas’ brokerage house Cortal Consors warned about market distrust and the contagion effect over the region after the Argentine government made the announcement this week of the nationalisation of Repsol’s subsidiary YPF. In Friday’s strategy note to investors, Cortal Consors analysts said market participants fear other countries in the Latin-America area could follow the aggressive policies of Argentina’s president Cristina Kirchner, who is since her re-election trying to stop capital outflows…