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Global Economy

World economy 25th January 2020

After Growing 3.2% In 2019, The Global Economy Will Expand 3.2% In 2020 And 3.3% In 2021

These growth forecasts are  dependent upon keeping geopolitical tensions in check, in addition to other risks threatening the world economy. Specifically, our scenario assumes that recent tensions between the US, Iran, and Iraq will have no permanent negative impact on the global environment. In particular, oil prices are expected to stabilize at about $61 per barrel over the next two years, below the average value recorded in 2019 ($ 64) or the current price ($ 68).

spanish households

Markets, World economy 9th September 2019

Long read: Expectations behind the negative yield curves

Miguel Navascués | The slope of the interest rate curve has become negative in several countries, among them the most important. As we know, whenever this happens there is a high probability that it is anticipating a recession, in this case global. Some countries will come out of this better than others, but the recession is highly likely.

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In Europe 16th July 2016

Does Brexit Lead to X-Exit?

BoAML | After Brexit, we followed through on our scenario analysis, penciling in a full-blown UK recession, cutting 0.5% off of Euro Area growth and slicing 0.2% off of US and global growth. Events since Brexit have not changed our call. The pound has plunged more than 11% since the vote, and both consumer and business confidence have tumbled.

The global economy in the year 2018

In Europe 24th March 2015

Uncertainty hits global economy

MADRID | March 24, 2015 | By J.P Marín-Arrese | On face value, Europe is recovering from a bad spell while the US is growing at an invidious rate. However, the wild currency swing may yet destabilise the global economy. Janet Yellen’s remarks on the threat of an overvalued dollar were designed to preserve a balanced performance, and indeed sparked a quick reaction in exchange rates. Yet, as the ECB unfurls its massive quantitative easing programme, volatility in the currency markets could inflict further damage. 

No Picture

World economy 1st January 2015

2015 Outlook: The year of Equities, the US and Spain

MADRID | By Julia Pastor | The designs of the markets are unfathomable. Mario Draghi might forget the QE idea and the British housing sector might collapse. These are some of the Saxo Bank’s ludicrous forecasts for 2015. A year ago they claimed there would be a default in the Russian debt and the collapse of the oil price, and they were right. Nonetheless, most of the experts that talked to The Corner agree on a scenario for 2015 led by the ECB’s quantitative easing, the oil price reduction and low interest rates.

No Picture

World economy 14th November 2014

How are investors positioned and where is money flowing?

ZURICH | UBS analysts | The US continues to come top of the class in economic terms which, combined with the effect of central bank policy divergence, is clearly driving global flows. Country- specific equity ETF flows in October show that the US saw by far the largest inflows last month followed by the UK, Korea and Australia. Europe was once again a laggard in both economic terms and in flows: Germany, Spain, Italy, and Sweden, saw net outflows in October due to these growth concerns. Within BRIC, China saw the largest outflow since April last year as growth concerns continue to persist but Brazil, India and Mexico saw inflows.

morgan1copia

World economy 7th August 2014

JPMorgan: Global economy might pivot to above trend growth in 3Q

MADRID | The Corner | JPMorgan’s economic outlook forecasts that global growth is taking hold around midyear and as a rebound from weakness the US and Japan is reinforcing a more modest acceleration in the Euro area and emerging Asia. If JPMorgan analysts are right, this episode’s contours should mirror growth pivots in earlier expansions (during 2003 and 1993).