This article focuses on the 2020 US Election, which formally kicks off next week with the February 3 Iowa Caucuses. In this piece, experts at BNY Mellon Daniel Tenengauzer and John Velis explore how markets may react as political events unfold in the run-up to November 3.
Wei Wei, a 40-year-old Chinese national, was executed on Thursday morning at Fukuoka Prison. He had been convicted of the murder of a family of four in Fukuoka, committed with two other students of Chinese origin. Japan is one of a handful of countries that has persistently executed over the past few years.
Shaun Riordan | Is there a Manchurian candidate in the White House? While the US people decide who Trump is, Europe must decide whether it wants to be a player in the geopolitical chess game, or the chessboard on which others play.
Andressa Tezine (Fidelity) | The sharp fall in Argentina´s bonds and international shares, after President Macri´s surprise defeat in Argentine primary elections, could spread to other Latin American and emerging markets while investors look to re-balance their positions.
Shaun Riordan │ The Hong Kong protests have now entered their tenth week. Over the weekend protestors are reported to have fought running battles with the police in the Metro system. The police have had recourse to batons and tear gas. The dangers for Hong Kong´s political and economic future are clear. But the dangers are much broader than Hong Kong. Markets should be watching carefully.
The prospect of a settlement to the conventional elements of the trade war is helping sentiment. As discussed by Mark Tinker, Head of AXA Framlington Equities in Asia, it is in everybody’s interest to settle the tariff issue. However, the policies aimed (perhaps quixotically) at trying to limit Chinese growth, are very much still on the table. The issues over Huawei are perhaps the most visible aspect of this, but it does introduce a level of policy-dependent idiosyncratic risk for portfolios.
A recession is triggered when the economy contracts for two consecutive quarters. One or two negative readings about GDP may make little sense. But when it is various key indicators which are beginning flash red for a prolonged period, the image becomes clearer and more significant. In opinion of D. Spence y J. Franz, this moment has still not arrived in the US.
Pablo Pardo (Washington) | Donald Trump could nominate Herman Cain, an eccentric businessman who has accumulated various scandals and a questionable economic baggage, as a board member of the Federal Reserve. Cain is famous for having directed the El Padrino pizza chain and also for having been a senior executive at Burger King.
The crimes of the III Reich, product of Adolf Hitler, still horrify. But no-one remembers the II Reich, whose Chancellor, Otto von Bismarck, is no less execrable than his successor, at least outside Europe. We can thank proofs like “Guilt and Debt” of the German Dierk Schmidt, exhibited at the Velazquez Palace (Madrid) until 10 March.
Leonardo Vivas | Until January this year, Nicolás Maduro, Venezuela’s strongman, seemed to have overcome all the obstacles in his battle for political survival. But after a few years preaching in the wilderness, the country’s democratic forces found a new energy with Juan Guaidó.