Bankinter | Aena (AENA) airports recorded 16.9 million passengers in January, which is +2% compared to January 2019 (pre-virus) and compares with -2% in December. Compared to last year, it is up +63%, although it should be borne in mind that, at the beginning of last year, traffic was still affected by the Omicron variant.
Analysis:
Good news. Passenger traffic continues to improve in January, surpassing pre-virus levels for the first time, now also supported by the rapid recovery of business travel. For 2023 we estimate an increase of +9% to 266 million.
However, we maintain our Neutral recommendation. It offers no upside potential relative to our Target Price and, although traffic is recovering, the 2022-2026 Strategic Plan once again highlights Aena’s vulnerability in an environment of high inflation. Tariffs will not rise until at least 2026 and the capacity to reduce costs is very limited. The target is to recover 2019 EBITDA (pre-crash) by the end of the plan. The main source of growth will be international expansion, which entails higher risks and investments.
