T. C. | “Europe is the place to be this year. That at least is what Morgan Stanley analysts say: “With economic momentum improving (and with a three-year visibility), strong earnings growth, lower relative valuations, tighter investor positioning, US flows growing, buybacks at lows and improving, positive inflation effect, Bunds yields at 0% and the Recovery Fund, could see Europe beat all regions for the first time since 2000 (being…
BofA | We turn tactically neutral on European equities: We lower our weighting on European equities from positive to neutral following the 14% rally since August. Our macro projections remain unchanged: we expect a further 1.5 points upside for the Euro area composite PMI new orders to 52 by February, following the 2-point rise since September.
Compared to American companies, European companies have a higher average dividend yield and lower valuations, which are attractive for those investors who prefer to be more defensive in the last stages of the cycle.
BofA | Net 40% of investors expect European economy to strengthen over the next 12 months; rising from net 9% expecting it to weaken last month.
Morgan Stanley | Bank analysts raised the sector to Attractive a few weeks ago because our macro no longer expects depo-type cuts and this increases confidence that profit estimates have hit a minimum in 2H19. We estimate a flat growth of the NII (+ 0.6%) in 2020 and 2021. There is optionality in the charge for deposits (could add 3% to the NII of the Eurozone banks).
Igor de Maack (Natixis) | Years of negative rates may well be coming to an end, with a reversal of investor sentiment for bonds over the last few weeks. In fact, the French 10-year rate is now verging on 0%. However, these years will leave their mark in terms of the extravagance of the monetary policies implemented for the purposes of “Saving Private Capitalism”, lost on the battlefield of excessive debt and driven into the trenches of complex finance.
BOfAML | Growth has started to improve and macro uncertainty is fading, but much of the good news is already priced into markets. We remain positive on European equities, but only see a further 5% upside to 425 on the Stoxx 600 by March.
Patrik Lang, Head of Equities Research, Julius Baer | A further delay on 31 October seems currently the most likely scenario. General elections later on will decide the fate of Brexit. For continental European equities, we see a 10% downside in the event of a hard Brexit, mainly driven by financials and autos.
Igor de Maack (Natixis IM) | In contradiction of all the prophets of doom, the start of the year was one of the best of recent times. Despite a marked economic slowdown in the first quarter of 2019, buying risky assets has more than paid off. Publications of annual results and the first quarterly results contained no indications of a severe global recession.
Despite the elements of surprise in yesterday’s general elections in Germany, most analysts and economists believe the overall impact on the financial markets will be limited in the short and medium-term. But with the status quo of the Grand Coalition no longer available, there will now be a period of uncertainty.