OPEC has finally agreed to cut production by nearly 1.2 million bpd from January and for 6 months, representing about 4.5% of global output. Now we need to ask two questions: will the cartel countries respect the agreement? What will happen with the recent investment deficit in the sector? Will it still be profitable for the big producers to extract oil?
UBS | We have updated our Upstream major project database. Further cuts to capital investment, responding both tactically to this year’s very low prices but also, increasingly, strategically to a changing market outlook, have contributed to another year of below-trend project development activity.
Oil demand in both Emerging Markets (EMs) and Developed Markets (DMs) has risen strongly since 2014, but now the oil market will have to rely on EM consumption, according to a BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research report.
The IEA estimates that the drop in production in non-OPEC countries, mainly the US, coupled with the positive trend in demand, could foreseeably shut off the excess of supply in the second hald of 2016, returning stability to the oil market.
Calls for keeping a low-key profile till the new UK Prime Minister takes office and agrees terms with its EU partners on the broad Brexit strategy seem to be being largely ignored. Mr Juncker jumped on the opportunity to deliver a stern and ill-timed warning to the UK.
BoAmL | After an astonishing 90% increase in spot WTI prices since mid-February, oil market participants are now starting to focus on the timeframe and magnitude of a potential recovery in US shale output. But US producers have yet to bring some rigs back, and oil drilling across in Canada and the US has continued to retrench in recent months.
UBS | US E&Ps cut capex by ~40% YoY in 2015 & are budgeted to cut >50% YoY this year. This has caused the US oil rig count to plunge from a peak of 1,609 in 2H14 to 328 (7- year low). But as spot WTI prices have moved from <$30/Bbl earlier this year to ~$46/Bbl currently, one of the key questions energy investors are asking is when will US E&Ps begin to add rigs?
UBS | Improved EM asset performance this year has been driven by a) the tremendous credit stimulus from China, b) a change in the reaction function of the Fed, which helped EM currencies rally against the USD, and, c) the rebalancing in the oil market. Investors are already questioning the first two, but oil has continued to trade very well.
UBS | Given the re-emerging importance of Iran, we spent time digging into the operating environment in Iran and speaking with oilmen on the ground there.
Julius Baer Research | Oil seemingly maintains last week’s positive momentum and prices continue to rally in early Monday morning trade. There was indeed a set of supportive news pushing Brent benchmark prices close to USD 40 per barrel.