UBS | In recent notes (” Trouble down the line “, ” The outlook for OPEC production capacity “) we detailed the meaningful slow-down in activity we are seeing across the industry. This is being driven by a reassessment of portfolios, on grounds of affordability and in reaction to structural and cyclical deflationary dynamics. In this note we show the effect of this slowdown on investment levels. The results have been dramatic.
Luis Carlos Croissier is a member of the board of Repsol, Spain’s biggest oil company. He recalls that proven global oil reserves are currently double the level they were in 1980. Croissier was also chairman of the CNMV, the stock exchange regulatory body, and responsible for the Spanish bourse’s “Big Bang”, at the end of 80’s. Before that time, he was Industry Minister in Spain’s Socialist party.
UBS | 2015 has seen a sharp decline in oil prices, and we exit the year at around a 7-year low. However, we see reasons to be upbeat – we are certainly more optimistic than we have been for the past 2 years, and more constructive than merely extrapolating from current market conditions.
UBS | The earnings season is right around the corner. We have seen pricing and utilization pressure begin again due to the continued weakness in oil prices and the U.S . rig count. The oil service industry will still remain structurally challenged throughout 2016 and into 2017.
BARCLAYS | Global equities are closing in on their worst quarter since 2011, with a number of factors fuelling fears in an already jittery market.
Analysts at UBS are cutting our oil price forecast for the period 2015-19 and cutting long-term normalised view to $80/bbl from $90/bbl. Near oil term forecasts reflect the prospect of a lower 3Q outturn and the base from which we see the recovery in prices rising from
LONDON | UBS | Lower oil prices are evaluated as essentially “a wash” for the US economy.
MADRID | July 23, 2015 | By Francisco López | Until just over one year ago, funds with high exposure to emerging economies were the start product. Now the trend has reversed. Investors are rolling back their positions due to the vulnerabilities that present many countries due after the fall in commodities prices, China’s economy slowdown and expectations of US Fed rates hike.
WASHINGTON | By Pablo Pardo | Why do they call Economics the Dismal Science? In theory, because it is about using limited resources to satisfy unlimited needs. In practice because, no matter what, everything is always bad in Economics. Case in point: cheap oil.
MADRID | By Ana López-Varela | “The OPEC will not cut production even if the oil barrel drops to $20.” The intentions of the Saudi Oil Minister, Ali al Naimi, are stark. But, how will the OPEC’s decision of maintaining the production quota at 30 million barrel per day affect the markets? And which are the forecasts that market watchers have regarding the oil? In general, they expect the prices to increase. However, futures traders remain more conservative.