Alphavalue / Divacons | MorningStar credit rating agency DBRS issued a new report last Friday on BBVA’s takeover bid for Sabadell banks in which it considers it to have “more pros than cons”. From a credit profile point of view, the deal will have a positive impact on Sabadell’s long-term credit ratings, which are positioned two notches below BBVA’s DBRS rating. It explains that the rating of the bank led…

Accuracy | The downward trend in the CDS (5Y Senior Debt) spreads of the main Spanish banks over the last 12 months continues, thanks to the market’s improved perception of the risk of default on debt issued by banks. The ghosts of contagion from the US mid-market banking crisis have been completely banished. Sabadell continues to be the Spanish bank with the highest spread, at 104.8 bps at the end…

Alphavalue / Divacons | BBVA CEO Onur Genç has repeated in an interview with Expansión newspaper that they will not improve the offer for Banco Sabadell. Mr Genç hopes that the government will eventually appreciate the strength of the deal. The CEO explains that the decision has not been easy for the bank, but defends that it is a “transformative” transaction for BBVA Spain and “extremely favourable for Sabadell shareholders”….

Link Securities | The Minister of Economy, Trade and Enterprise, Carlos Cuerpo, has admitted that BBVA may take ownership of Banco Sabadell, but not merge with it, Invertia.com reported on Friday. He also pointed out that “the merger is what the government has to authorise”. Cuerpo has remarked that the takeover bid by BBVA for SAB has to go through a process that includes the approval of the National Securities…

Link Securities | The Minister of Economy, Trade and Enterprise, Carlos Cuerpo, has conveyed to the president of the supervisory board of the European Central Bank (ECB), Claudia Buch, his “concerns” regarding the hostile takeover bid launched by BBVA (BBVA) on Banco Sabadell (SAB) in a bilateral meeting. This was confirmed by Mr Cuerpo in statements to the media on his arrival at the meeting of Eurozone finance ministers. “We…

BBVA maintains the same conditions that it offered to the board of Sabadell (SAB) and that the latter rejected, so now “the ball is in the court” of the shareholders of Sabadell (SAB), who will determine whether the operation goes ahead or not. BBVA shares received the news with declines of 5% while those of Sabadell (SAB) rose 4%. As Jefferies pointed out in its analysis of the offer, “Despite…

Banco Sabadell (SAB) has rejected the offer that BBVA (BBVA) had made last week to merge the two entities, considering that it will generate more value on its own, the bank has informed the National Securities Market Commission (CNMV). Sabadell’s board, which met on Monday to assess the offer, based its decision on the opinion that it could create greater shareholder value by remaining alone. BBVA’s proposal was for a…

Jefferies | BBVA (Buy) submitted an offer for Sabadell (Restricted) less than 24 hours after BBVA’s interest was leaked to the press. The deal implies c4% EPS enhancement and a 30bps capital cost for BBVA, in line with our baseline published yesterday (3% and -20bps respectively) as the higher premium (30%) is offset by larger cost synergies (€850m vs. our €550m estimate). Deal logic is sufficiently clear and valid for…

Jefferies | A press leak earlier this morning seems to have unveiled renewed merger talks between BBVA (Buy) and Sabadell (Restricted). We provide some food for thought and outputs under different scenarios. We can see the merits for such a deal from the vantage of BBVA, but we remain expectant on whether both parties can agree on sensible terms. Our baseline scenario suggests 3.5% EPS accretion on just 20bps CET1…