The umpteenth retrospective revision of Spain’s growth data released this Wednesday by the National Statistics Institute (INE) has once again improved the picture for the years 2021, 2022, and 2023, and has rescued €36.4 billion of last year’s GDP that the initial measurement had not detected, therefore raising the real economic growth for 2023 from 2.5% to 2.7%. According to this new statistical correction, the National Gross Domestic Product approached...

Intermoney| As expected, imports subtracted from GDP, which was expected given the trade deficit. The trade drag took 0.86 p.p. off the growth rate. Paradoxically, strong imports reflect solid consumer demand, but they also detract from overall GDP growth. That is the trade-off. Net exports only grew by +0.9% quarter-on-quarter, which shows that a strong dollar seems to put some pressure on exports. Also note that inventories built up at...

Intermoney| Euro area aggregate GDP fell by one-tenth of a percentage point in 3Q23, highlighting the transmission of tighter credit conditions. But we should not magnify the stumble of the aggregate if we take into account that Germany, which accounts for 30% of GDP, fell by -0.3% q/qtr. However, we see a series of favourable factors for the EMU countries’ economies to hold up at moderate rates over the coming...

Miguel Navascués| Although domestic demand has been in decline for two quarters, the recovery in tourism (whose revenues grew 38% year-on-year in 1Q23) and exports (+14%) have finally allowed Spain to recover its pre-Covid GDP in 2Q23. It is the last eurozone country to achieve this (while neither the Czech Republic nor Japan have yet done so) two years later than the average of the 19 most significant euro countries....

BancaMarch: The Paris-based organisation expects Spain to grow by 2.1% in 2023, improving its forecast for the country by up to four tenths of a percentage point compared to the previous report and in line with the government’s expectations. Looking ahead to 2024, the OECD also raises its forecasts, from 1.7% to 1.9%, although here it is below the executive’s forecast (+2.4%). With these forecasts, Spain will be the large...

Bankinter : Fitch maintains Spain’s rating at A- with a stable outlook. Fitch has revised the expected growth for 2023 upwards to 1.9% year-on-year (+0.7pp) reflecting “buoyant recovery in tourism and rising public sector investment. This has offset the weakness in private consumption, which recorded a second consecutive quarterly decline”. It projects a reduction in Public Debt/GDP to 110.4% by December 2024, “driven mainly by nominal GDP growth while primary...