BancaMarch: The IMF warns of the possible persistence of inflation, in the face of potential trade and geopolitical risks and service prices that remain high due to wage growth. The IMF’s report forecasts high interest rates for longer. Moreover, chief economist Gourinchas said that the Fed can afford to wait to cut rates to avoid inflationary surprises. Regarding their GDP growth projections, they have kept the previous April estimate for...

BancaMarch | The good and “less good” news from the IMF forecasts. Starting on the more optimistic side, they revise growth projections slightly upwards and suggest that the global economy may be approaching a “soft landing”. The “less good” refers to projections over a five-year horizon (+3.1%), the lowest in decades. GDP growth estimates for the global economy in 2024 increase by one tenth of a percentage point from those...

BancaMarch: International Monetary Fund forecasts support a soft landing. Global economic growth estimates for 2024 have been revised upwards by two tenths of a percentage point, maintaining the same levels as in 2023, +3.1%. This is due to the improved outlook for the United States and China, the world’s two largest economies. In the case of the United States, the variation in GDP falls from +2.5% in 2023 to +2.1%...

Banca March: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is considering increasing China’s voting rights to bring its share in the fund in line with its position in the global economy. Each country contributes a quota based on various factors reflecting economic positioning relative to the world economy. This quota designates the amount each country has to pay into the fund, as well as its voting rights. Currently, the Asian giant has...

BancaMarch | The International Monetary Fund today alluded to “uncertainty” around the direction of Japan’s monetary policy, saying a possible shift to ultra-low interest rates could have a significant impact on global financial markets. Krishna Srinivasan, head of the agency’s Asia-Pacific Department, also pointed to risks surrounding Asia’s economic outlook, such as weakening exports to advanced economies, slowing productivity in China and fragmentation of global trade.

Banca March : Kristalina Georgieva, head of the IMF, has warned of increased risks to financial stability, which “come at a time of higher debt levels”. Georgieva recalled that the global GDP growth forecast is below 3%, mainly due to the war in Ukraine and the restrictive monetary policy.