Bankinter | The Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility (AIReF) assesses the Government’s Economic Situation Report. It considers the macroeconomic scenario for the years 2024-2027 to be optimistic. AIReF has updated its macroeconomic scenario and projects GDP growth of 2.4% for 2024 (up 0.4pp); 1.9% for 2025; 1.8% for 2026 and 1.6% for 2027 (against 2.4% 2024; 2.2% 2025 and 2% in 2026 and 27 of the Government’s macroeconomic projections announced last Tuesday).
Analysis: AIRef revises upwards the growth projection for 2024, however, in the medium term the projected potential growth is below the Economic Situation Report announced by the Government last Tuesday (around 1.6% AIReF for 2027 and around 1.7% the Bank of Spain for 2026 versus 2% in the Government’s Macroeconomic Chart). Moreover, the Independent Authority points to the risk of non-compliance with the expenditure rule. They point out that the increase in eligible expenditure entails a deterioration in the fiscal situation in the medium term.
