Bankinter : Fitch maintains Italy’s rating and upgrades its debt outlook. The credit rating agency Fitch has maintained the debt rating at BBB and upgraded the outlook to Positive from Stable. Fitch explains this outlook upgrade by recent progress on the fiscal front and the government’s commitment to EU fiscal rules. These elements point to a reduction in medium-term financing risks stemming from the country’s high debt levels.
Opinion of Bankinter’s research team: Good news for Italian sovereign debt. S&P also recently confirmed the rating at BBB and maintained the outlook at Stable. Other rating agencies will conduct their reviews in the coming weeks: DBRS on 25 October and Moody’s on 22 November. Rating upgrades are expected in these reviews. The Meloni government recently announced the 2025 budget and confirmed ambitious deficit reduction plans that would lead to a deficit/GDP ratio below 3% by 2026. Italy’s public debt is 130% of GDP and would not start to be reduced until 2027, according to the government’s medium-term plans. Italy’s risk premium has improved a lot in recent months. It currently stands at 117 b.p. vs. close to 200 b.p. just a year ago.
