Yannis Mouzakis (Macropolis) | In a recent opinion poll by MRB, those surveyed were asked who they would like to see as next Greek President if the incumbent, Prokopis Pavlopoulos is not awarded a second term. Twenty-six percent said they would like to see former prime minister Kostas Karamanlis be appointed Greece’s new head of state.
Ivan Dikov (European Views) | Leftist Zoran Milanovic, a former Prime Minister, has been elected President of Croatia, beating closely right-wing incumbent Kolinda Grabar-Kitarovic. Croatia, which was the last country to join the European Union back in 2013, has just assumed the rotating Presidency of the Council of the EU for the first time in its history.
Nick Malkoutzis (Macropolis) | Leaving behind the crisis has also led to somewhat of a rehabilitation in the relationship between Greeks and Europe’s institutions. According to the latest Eurobarometer, whereas trust in the Greek government and Parliament ranges between 20 and 25 percent, faith in the European Parliament stands at 47 percent, falling to 34 percent for the European Commission. Also, 60 percent of Greeks think the euro is good for their country.
The chances of “getting Brexit done” reasonably quickly and smoothly have never been better.
Allianz GI / Victory for Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s Conservative party in the UK general election is likely to be welcomed by markets and potentially boosts prospects for the UK economy. It doesn’t, however, end the Brexit uncertainty overnight – and the UK continues to be vulnerable to a late-cycle global environment.
Valerio Alfonso Bruno & Roberta Ferrara (Fair Observer) | The EU needs to regain control of the political debate around social welfare, which has been masterfully monopolized by European populist parties in the last decade.
David A. Meier (Julius Baer) | Prime Minister Johnson’s Conservative Party grabbed a commanding victory. An orderly Brexit based on the withdrawal agreement is highly likely on 31 January. Given plenty of looming uncertainties during the transition period, such as the final UK-EU trade relationship and Scottish appetite for independence, we stick to a Neutral short-term British pound outlook.
If the Conservatives return to power with a large majority in the UK elections, UBP analysts anticipate the new government will engage in a large scale fiscal stimulus and UK assets will experience a relief rally.
“If the conservatives of Boris Johnson obtained the majority in the Parliament, the agreement of exit of the prime minister would return to the agenda of the new House and probably it would be approved. The United Kingdom will then begin the transition period (which in principle extends until the end of 2020) during which the future relationship with the EU will be defined,” analysts at Degroof Petercam point out.
D. A. Meier (Julius Baer) | Based on a lead in polls, a Conservative majority is highly likely. Labour’s socialist manifesto seems too radical to spur a full catch-up. A hung parliament remains a considerable risk. After a Conservative victory, a moderate fiscal boost could limit the Brexit fallout. After a Labour win, its political agenda could erode its huge fiscal spending plans, despite a softer Brexit.