BancaMarch | On the first day of the week, the Brent benchmark rose 2.7% to $75.1/barrel in light of the cartel’s announcement to delay the increase in production for the second consecutive month. For its part, the yellow metal remained unchanged on the eve of the US elections. With a cumulative increase of 32.7% in the year, gold is positioned as one of the main winners in the midst of…
BancaMarch: The International Energy Agency (IEA) expects global demand for crude oil to peak before the end of the decade. According to the agency, consumption of crude oil as a transport fuel will begin to decline from 2026, due to the rise of the electric car and other measures put in place. Nevertheless, the IEA forecasts a 6% growth in global oil demand between 2022 and 2028, reaching 105.7 million…
Explains Mariano Marzo, Repsol board member: “If we are going to need oil and gas, and it is clear that they will be necessary for many years to come, we must guarantee their production without demonising them. Failure to do so means tackling an ill-considered energy transition, driven more by ideology than by technology” … “The main risk of this ideological approach, which is quite widespread in many European areas,…
European Views | The conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues and so do the global gas supply issues. Iran hopes to step in and become Europe’s main gas provider replacing Russian gas export. Iran to Offer Alternative to Russian Gas Export in Europe Being the second-largest gas reserves globally, Iran has 34 trillion cubic metres of natural gas. It’s nearly 17% of the world’s total reserves. Some believe that Iran…
Repsol will stop producing oil in mid-June at ‘Casablanca’, the last oil platform in Spain located in the waters around the coast of Tarragona. The new Spanish Climate Change and Energy Transition Law contemplates that Spain will no longer grant new exploration authorisations, so this shutdown of Casablanca is a step towards this purpose. In 2018, the hydrocarbon field of La Lora in Burgos, the oldest oil field in Spain operating since 1964, was already forced to close.
Aneeka Gupta (Wisdom Tree)| Colonial Pipeline Co., a supplier of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel to the eastern US, was forced to halt operations on Friday owing to a ransomware attack that affected some of its IT systems. If the outage were to last for an extended period of time it could have far reaching effects on the oil markets extending beyond the US and impact Europe as well. In order to plug the shortfall in gasoline in the US East Coast we could see Europe start to ship gasoline to the US.
Bradley Handler, Matt Henry and Morgan Bazilian via The Conversation | These are very challenging times for U.S. fossil fuel-producing states, such as Wyoming, Alaska and North Dakota. The COVID-19 economic downturn has reduced energy demand, with uncertain prospects for the extent of its recovery. Meanwhile, rising concern about climate change and the declining cost of renewable energy are precipitating a sharp decline in demand for coal in particular.
Analysts at BofA Global Research still expect the global oil market to move into a 4.9mn b/d deficit in 4Q20 on the back of the OPEC+ cuts, supporting crude prices. Yet diesel and jetfuel/kerosene make up by far the largest petroleum product group in the oil market. So crude oil prices cannot really rally until distillate demand, jet fuel included, recovers to more normal levels in the next few months.
It will take three years for global oil demand to recover from Covid to its new normal assuming we have a vaccine or a cure. According to estimates from BoA Global Research, long term oil demand will peak at 105 million barrel/day by 2030 on electric car proliferation, and then decline to 95 mn bd by 2050. If heavy vehicles also switch to alternative fuel, electric or more likely hydrogen, demand could drop to 76 mnb/d by 2050.
Darwei Kung (DWS) | The oil rally continues. On the supply side, OPEC and Rus-sia reached an agreement to extend the June production cap into July instead of implementing the planned scaling down of cuts. This is perhaps a sign that the major produc-ers are conscious of the oil market’s fragility despite the recent rise in oil prices. Large inventory overhangs support that fear. On the demand side, the re-opening of economies across the globe has brought significant optimism, even though the amount of realized demand that has emerged give little support for it.