Intermoney | Aena (Buy, PO €215) has announced its 9m 24 results, and will hold a conference call today at 1pm. The figures, along with our estimates, are shown in the attached table. Based on September traffic levels that were well above pre-pandemic records (107% in Spain), Aena generated 9m EBITDA of €2,663m, or 125% of the 2019 figure, slightly above IMVe (€2,646m). We confirm our estimates, which we clearly raised (+10% EBITDA) in our note of 15 July.
By business, Aeronautics (EBITDA at 100% pre-pandemic vs. 102% IMV) reflected a certain decline in costs per passenger in Q3 of 4% to €3.9 vs. €4.1 IMV. The Commercial division (up 142% vs. 139% IMV) confirmed its good momentum through average revenue growth. International (219% to €249m) consolidated all the businesses in Brazil and clearly outperformed IMV (€220m). Net profit to September, €1,450m (€1,466m IMV), also exceeded the pre-pandemic level of €1,114m in 2019.
This was partly the result of:
Strong year-on-year increase in traffic during the last Q3 in Spain (up 8%), clearly exceeding pre-pandemic levels (up 13%), which allowed the aeronautical activity to grow its turnover by 15%, slightly below IMV (up 9% compared to 2019). Average revenue, by regulation and mix, increased by 4% to €10.2, confirming a certain acceleration compared to past quarters (€10.4 IMV).
Good news also in the commercial division, where revenues per passenger continued their excellent trend, reaching €5.56 at September, up 6% compared to 9m 23 and exceeding €4.46 at 9m 19, leading to 9m revenues of €1,323 million against€1,320 million IMV.
EBITDA of €2,663m at 9m 24 (€2,646m IMVe), 125% pre-pandemic, with greater cost stability. Aena generated an EBITDA to September of €2,663 million, representing 124% of the pre-pandemic figure, or +26% higher than last year’s figure, remaining slightly above our forecast of €2,646 million. Highlights:
Aeronautica’s operating leverage tends to work in its favour in Q3, unlike in Q1. A demanding comparison with Q23 saw operating costs down 4% from Q3 23 to €3.9/passenger (€4.1 IMV), leading to business EBITDA at September of €1.247 billion (€1.275 billion IMV), which was almost exactly at pre-pandemic levels.
Good results again in Retail, whose reported EBITDA of €1,102 million (€1,085 million IMV) was 42% higher than pre-pandemic, a direct consequence of the growth in revenues. The margin was almost 300 b.p. higher than in 9M 23 to almost 83%, although in Q3 they remained unchanged. In International, the contribution of all the assets in Brazil since January drove EBITDA up 67% to €249 million, compared to €220 million IMV, with this business being the biggest difference compared to our forecasts.
Net profit of €1.45 billion (+u 27%), also above pre-pandemic. Below EBITDA there were no surprises, apart from negative items due to financial adjustments of €20 million that we had not considered, and including financials of -€103 million, leading Aena to a net profit of €1,450 million, higher than the €1,114 million pre-pandemic, and compared to €1,446 million IMV.
