Morgan Stanley | Our analyst expects the NII of Spanish banks to fall by 0.9% quarter-on-quarter on average due to seasonality, while the growth in deposits will offset lower rates in the short term. He believes that the guidance for 2024 will remain unchanged. Looking ahead to the numbers for 2025/26 and following the downgrade of the sector this week, he reduces the Euribor estimate from 2.5% to 2.25% on average for 2025 and from 2% to 1.5% for 2026.
This leads to a cut in profit estimates of 4.5% for 2026 and a similar reduction in target prices. CaixaBank is the only Overweight. • In CaixaBank, our analyst expects a 10% growth in NII for the year vs high-single-digits estimated by management, which implies that NII will start to decline in Q4. That said, for Q3, his estimates are 1% above consensus. • In Santander, he maintains the EW recommendation in the short term, as while he believes that profits should be more resilient than those of its peers in 2025/26e, our analyst points out that the market still needs to digest the lower expectations in Brazil and also acknowledges the lack of clarity regarding capital obstacles. • In Bankinter, he still sees upside. Although he considers that mid-single-digits growth in NII is reasonable, he still sees upside for high-single-digits growth in fees for the year (MSe 12%). • Unicaja remains his least preferred choice, due to the NII mix.
CAIXABANK, OVERWEIGHT, FROM 6.75 TO 6.50 EUR,
SANTANDER, EQUAL-WEIGHT, FROM 5.70 TO 5.50 EUR,
BANKINTER, EQUAL-WEIGHT, FROM 8.90 TO 8.50 EUR,
UNICAJA, UNDERWEIGHT, FROM 1.20 TO 1.10 EUR.
