The latest polls show a scenario of great uncertainty, in which Alberto Núñez Feijóo’s Partido Popular would win 147 seats in its most likely outcome, ahead of Pedro Sánchez’s PSOE, which would win 108. Sumar would be the third force with 34 seats, ahead of Vox, with 29, and the nationalist parties. ERC retains 10 seats, Junts gets 9, EH Bildu 6, PNV 5, while CUP and BNG would get one.
In this scenario, the conservative bloc of PP and Vox would have 176 seats, exactly the number needed to achieve the absolute majority that would allow for an investiture.