Bankinter | The unemployment rate has improved to 11.21% in 3Q2024 (down 0.07pp in the quarter, at 2008 levels). The Activity Rate continues to increase in the year to 59.04% (up 137.1 thousand in Q3), with an increase in the number of employed to 21.8 million (up 138.3 thousand), while the number of unemployed remains fairly stable at 2.75 million (down 1,200 people).
The number of Employed rises to 21.8M (up 0.6% quarter-on-quarter and 1.8% year-on-year) and consolidates above 21M since June 2023. It marks a new high.
The number of unemployed stands at 2.75M (down 0.0% quarter-on-quarter, and 4.9% year-on-year), but still above the lows of 2.19M in 2008 and 1.77M in 2007. From a sectoral point of view, this quarter the decline in unemployment is centred in Construction vs. the increase in Agriculture. In any case, in the year the decrease continues centred in the activity of Services.
The Activity Rate improves again in the quarter to 59.04% (up 0.14bp), with 24.6 M due to the increase in the population, as the Inactive population remains at around 17.1M (down 4.5 thousand in the quarter).
In conclusion, the unemployment rate improved slightly over the quarter. The increase in the number of Employed (above 21.8M, a new high) is positive, especially for the outlook of Household Consumption, one of the pillars for the GDP growth projections (whose Q3 figures will be published next week).
GDP growth 2024 will trend towards our positive scenario +2.9% year-on-year (versus 2.7% year-on-year Central), after the upward revision of the last quarterly data and these Employment figures that should provide resilience to Consumption. Regarding the Unemployment Rate our estimates point to a moderate trend in the improvement in the coming quarters, towards around 11% for 2024 and 2025.
