J.P. Marín-Arrese | Last Friday, Wall Street jumped on employment and services data. Jobs openings, while better than expected, signalled a downward path. The service sector contracted for the first time till 2020. The ensuing bullish reaction shows the markets bet the Fed might undertake a U-turn earlier than pointed out in the last FOMC minutes. Investors seem to outwit the Fed, disregarding its determination to keep rates tight enough…
The technicians of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Wednesday completed their annual review of the Spanish economy, known as ‘Article IV’, and concluded that the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth will be “relatively weak” in the coming quarters. “Growth is expected to be relatively weak in the coming quarters due to weak external demand and deteriorating consumer confidence,” the IMF stressed in its conclusions on the country’s economic…
Alicia García Herrero (Natixis) | After months of preparation and concerning sentiment stemming from a deteriorating external environment, Covid-related restrictions and the plummeting real estate sector, the Communist Party’s 20th Congress has started with President Xi Jinping delivering the work report. Below are some key take-aways: 1. Dynamic zero Covid policies remain in place, sealed by the success in saving lives during the past few years. No clear exit strategy has been…
It will take us Spaniards six years to get back to where we were in 2019. After the latest slowdown in growth, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised its forecasts for world GDP per capita. And the result is that, of the 24 countries that make up what the organisation calls ‘advanced economies’, 23 are going to recover their pre-covid-19 standard of living before Spain. Some, such as the…
After Italy and France, Germany did so in the second quarter of this year. The Spanish economy, according to the Bank of Spain, will not reach this point until 2024. Italy and France had already achieved it. The average for the euro area achieved it by the end of 2021. And Germany did so after the second quarter of this year. Therefore, Spain has been completely left behind and is…
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)’s analysts, in their new economic growth projections for 2022 and 2023, have revised Spain’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth for 2022 upwards by three tenths of a percentage point to 4.4% compared with their June estimate. Meanwhile, they have lowered their projection for Spanish GDP growth in 2023 by seven tenths of a percentage point to 1.5%. With regard to inflation, the…
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has lowered its GDP growth forecast for the whole world, including Spain. Spain will grow by 4% in 2022, which is eight tenths of a percentage point lower than the forecast published in April. The fall in GDP will be more pronounced next year if Russia’s war against Ukraine continues. According to the report ‘World Economic Outlook’, published on Tuesday, the IMF considers that in…
The European Commission has not corrected its forecasts with respect to May: growth remains at 4%, close to the Government’s April forecast of 4.3%. The blow comes in 2023, with one of the biggest downward revisions in Europe, of 1.3 percentage points: growth of 2.1%, after the Commission itself estimated months ago that it would be 3.4%. For this period, the government had estimated 3.5% growth three months ago. The…
“Sánchez could not stand that for two years in a row, 2021 and 2022, the growth rate of the Gross Domestic Product has been revised downwards, in the first quarter of the year. This has triggered the dismissal of the president of the National Institute of Statistics, Juan Manuel Rodríguez Poo. A discreet and honest professor of Fundamentals of Economic Analysis at the University of Cantabria, appointed president of the…
Crédito y Caución expects the Russian invasion of Ukraine to cut Eurozone GDP growth by one percentage point to 2.9% in 2022, due to supply chain disruption, higher commodity prices and the adverse impact on business and consumer confidence. This impact assessment, subject to a high level of uncertainty, is based on two assumptions: that the conflict will not continue beyond 2022 and that sanctions will be strengthened but not…