Intermoney| The INE (National Institute of Statistics) published the data on tourist arrivals in Spain in the month of February on Tuesday, with more than 5 million international tourists, exceeding by +16% the data of 2023 and +14.4% those of 2019. Moreover, the average expenditure per tourist increases by +8.5% vs. Feb ́23 and +27% vs. Feb ́19.
- The main countries of residence of tourists visiting Spain in January were: United Kingdom (18.8%); France (12.4%) and Germany (11.8%).
- The main destinations of tourists in January were: Canary Islands (28.1%); Catalonia (21%) and Andalusia (14.5%).
- If we compare with 2019, the only nationalities that have not recovered those levels in Europe in the first two months of 2024 have been the Nordic Countries. Outside Europe, Asian countries are the worst performers compared to pre-pandemic levels, with Japan and China at the bottom of the list. Looking ahead to 2024, the recovery of British and German tourism, which during 2023 were below 2019 levels, as well as the recovery of Asian tourism will continue to improve results.
Assessment: Tourism continues to show strength at the start of the year, amply surpassing data from 2019 and 2023, a year of records for both inflows and spending, as well as increasing its contribution to GDP to historic highs, being responsible for more than 70% of the growth of the Spanish economy in 2023. The sector continues to show great resilience and the crisis that we thought was coming never arrived. In addition, very good data are expected for March, with a favourable comparison as Easter is included in March, while last year and in 2019 it fell in April. It seems that the importance of travel in consumer preferences has prevailed over other goods, despite having already exhausted the effects of pent-up demand and savings accumulated during the pandemic, in a context of rising wage incomes and relatively strong employment. The gap we have seen between tourism spending indicators and consumer confidence is expected to remain open for at least the first quarter of 2024. The recovery in Asian markets that we will see this year should improve the 2023 data. IAG (Buy, P.O €2.6), Meliá (Hold P.O €7)
