Political uncertainty about the Brexit procedure caused the United Kingdom’s (UK’s) gross domestic product (GDP) to stagnate in the fourth quarter of 2019. However, the strong decrease in political uncertainty since the 12 December parliamentary election should allow the UK economy to rebound back to growth during the first quarter of this year, explains Janwillem Acket, chief economist at Julius Baer.
Julius Baer | Although the UK will most likely officially exit the EU tomorrow, this exit will mostly be formal. The withdrawal agreement only defines the terms of divorce, limiting immediate disruptions, but says little about the future trade relationship between the UK and EU. The so-called ‘Political Declaration’, a 26- page sketch of the future trade relationship alongside the with- drawal agreement, but not legally binding, defines a so-called ‘transition’ or ‘implementation’ period from the date of Brexit until the end of 2020.
Allianz GI / Victory for Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s Conservative party in the UK general election is likely to be welcomed by markets and potentially boosts prospects for the UK economy. It doesn’t, however, end the Brexit uncertainty overnight – and the UK continues to be vulnerable to a late-cycle global environment.
If the Conservatives return to power with a large majority in the UK elections, UBP analysts anticipate the new government will engage in a large scale fiscal stimulus and UK assets will experience a relief rally.
Iberdrola will promote via its subsidiary Scottish Power Renewables a marine wind mega-project, called East Anglia Hub, which will add an installed capacity of 3,100 MW and involve an approximate investment of 6,500 million pounds (more than 7,600 million euros). The three projects will be procured together to leverage their scale with a continuous installation programme.
As Peter Kinsella, UBP’s global FX strategist highlights, the US dollar bull market has likely run its course as we enter 2020. Indeed, since 1995, long-cycle inflections in the US dollar exchange range have coincided with long-cycle under/outperformance of US equities relative to non- US equities.
Chris Stafford via The Conversation | Despite repeatedly insisting he didn’t want a general election, Boris Johnson, the UK prime minister, has now tried and failed to get parliament to support one. It now looks like he’ll try again or seek a vote by some other route. Having lost his majority and control of parliament, a general election seems almost inevitable now. The big question, though, is when it will happen.
Ann-Katrin Petersen, investment strategist at Allianz Global Investor | The more uncertain the UK political environment, the weaker the GBP, and vice versa. A structural appreciation of GBP, which we deem to be undervalued, necessitates more clarity and a benign decision in the Brexit discussion.
Keith Wade, chief economist at Schroders │ The yield curve has been a reliable element in the prediction of US recessions over the last four decades. With only one exception, every time the curve has inverted, the US economy has entered into recession within 18 months.