Bankinter : The unemployment rate has risen in the first quarter of 2023 to 13.26% from 12.87% previously and versus the 13.0% expected. The number of unemployed has risen to 3.13M (as opposed to 3.0M at the end of 2022). The activity rate remains fairly stable at 58.55% (versus 58.52% previously).
Analysis: the labour market is deteriorating more than expected and continues to slow down from 12.48% in 2Q 2022; despite better-than-expected growth dynamics at the beginning of the year, especially driven by lower energy prices. Our projections point to a deterioration in 2023 (13.7% est.) as labour costs rise and economic growth moderates (GDP +1.3% 2023e from +5.5% 2022).
On the other hand, Retail Sales were up 9.5% in March (year-on-year) against the +3.5% estimated and the +4.0% previous. On a month-on-month basis, also +0.5% in March vs -0.3% previously.
Analysis: Good news, Retail Sales are holding up despite the loss of household purchasing power, in an environment of high inflation and rising financing costs.
