Link Securities | The Conference Board reported yesterday that the consumer confidence index fell in April to 101.3 points from 104.0 points in March, falling below the 104.1 points expected by FactSet consensus analysts.
In April the sub-index measuring consumers’ perceptions of the current situation rose to 151.1 points from 148.9 points in the previous month, while the sub-index measuring expectations, based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business and labour market conditions, declined to 68.1 points from 74.0 points in March. Notably, the expectations sub-index has remained below 80 points, a level associated with a recession within the next year, every month since February 2022, with the exception of a brief uptick in December 2022.
Conference Board analyst Ataman Ozyildirim said in his report that while consumers’ relatively favourable assessment of the current business environment improved somewhat in April, their expectations fell and remain below the level that often indicates an imminent near-term recession. Moreover, he added, consumers became more pessimistic about the outlook for both business conditions and labour markets. Compared to last month, fewer households expect business conditions to improve and more expect conditions to worsen over the next six months. They also expect fewer jobs to become available in the near term.
