Intermoney | Aena (Buy, PO €205) announced on Monday its monthly traffic data for September. During last month the number of passengers in Spain rose year-on-year by 8% to 29.6 million.
Both Barajas and El Prat grew by close to 10%, a figure that was not out of line with the rest of the relevant airports, outperforming for example Palma (up 5%) and Ibiza (0%). The national total in September was 9% higher than the pre-pandemic figure. Year-to-date traffic grew 10% to €237.8 million, or up 11% on pre-pandemic figures, again with Barajas and El Prat in double digits. Aena reported traffic at the remaining overseas assets which showed the contrast between Brazilian airports (up 6%) and Luton (down 6%).
Assessment: Traffic in Spain continues its slow moderation in traffic growth, which peaked last March (13%), and which we expect to close the year slightly below 9%. For 2025 and onwards we are cautious, and do not think that the 2024 figures will be repeated, as increases would be at 4% next year, and no more than 2.5% thereafter. Aena will announce its Q3 results next October 30. For 2024 as a whole , we expect the operator to increase its EBITDA by 18% to €3,561m, due to the strength of commercial activity and cost containment in Aeronautics, in addition to the full-year contribution of the assets acquired in Brazil.
