Bankinter | September’s final CPI confirms 1.5% year-on-year preliminary and moderation from 2.3% in August. Month-on-month also confirms preliminary down 0.6% month-on-month (0% month-ahead). Core CPI at 2.4% year-on-year same as preliminary and from 2.7% previously); -0.4% month-on-month.
Bankinter analysis team’s view: Final data confirm a better-than-anticipated performance through September. In fact, EMU CPI came in at 1.8% year-on-year (preliminary), which gives the ECB room to move below its target. In any case, it is worth remembering that we expect a slight rebound in the last months of the year, when compared to last year’s low electricity prices and the progressive normalization of VAT on food.
Our estimates point to an average CPI 3.0% year-on-year in 2024 (from 3.6% in 2023) and maintaining the moderation towards 2.1% year-on-year average in 2025 and 2026.
