Bankinter | OPEC+ has lowered its global oil demand estimate for the third consecutive month for 2024 and 2025. It will reach 104.14 mbd in 2024, up 1.93 mbd from 2023. This estimate is down 106,000bd from its September estimate.
As for 2025, it estimates 105.78 mbd, down 102,000bd from its September estimate. Much of this downward reduction is accounted for by China.
In parallel, Israel says it is listening to the US suggestion not to bomb Iran’s oil and energy facilities. However, it insists that it will do what it considers to be in the country’s interest.
Opinion of Bankinter’s analysis team: Both news stories have a negative impact on oil prices: Brent $74.7; -3.6%. In our opinion, the oil trend is bearish due to the moderation of economic growth in China, two open wars that have a direct impact on global economic growth and because economies are becoming more efficient, which means less need for crude oil, due to the boom in renewable energies.
