Bankinter | Brent is up 1.8% to near $75/b following OPEC’s decision this weekend to delay the expected oil production increase for December by another month. For reference, it is currently cutting 5.86 million barrels of oil per day (bpd), which corresponds to about 5.7% of world oil demand. Within the aforementioned cuts, 3.66M bpd will be extended until the end of 2025 and the remaining 2.2M bpd will be…
Bankinter | OPEC+ has lowered its global oil demand estimate for the third consecutive month for 2024 and 2025. It will reach 104.14 mbd in 2024, up 1.93 mbd from 2023. This estimate is down 106,000bd from its September estimate. As for 2025, it estimates 105.78 mbd, down 102,000bd from its September estimate. Much of this downward reduction is accounted for by China. In parallel, Israel says it is listening…
Bankinter | OPEC projects weaker oil demand for 2024 and 2025 in its monthly report. It estimates that it will grow in 2024 +1.99% year-on-year (versus +2.07% previously) or 2.03M bpd (versus 2.11M bpd previously) and in 2025 +1.67% (versus +1.71% previously) or 1.64M bpd (versus 1.74M bpd previously). This is the second consecutive month of downward revisions to global oil demand. Opinion of the Bankinter analysis team: Bad news…
BancaMarch | On expectations of a slowdown in demand from China, OPEC downgrades its global oil demand projections for 2024 and 2025. In its monthly report released on Monday, the cartel forecast demand growth of 2.11 million barrels per day (mb/d) this year and 1.78 mb/d in 2025 (down from 2.25 mb/d and 1.85 mb/d previously estimated). In aggregate, according to the group’s forecasts, global demand for this year would…
Banca March: The production cap was introduced in November and is valid until the first quarter of 2024 and, last month, it was extended until mid-year. The agreement is paying off for the cartel, with the price of Brent crude oil reaching $90 per barrel yesterday, helped by other factors such as tensions in the Middle East and the attacks on Russian refineries. At yesterday’s session they decided to maintain…
Link Securities| Members of the alliance between the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, called OPEC+, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia agreed on Sunday to extend their voluntary production cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day of oil during 2Q2024, giving extra support to the market, in an environment of concern about global growth, and the increase in production of countries outside this alliance. Saudi…
BancaMarch| OPEC oil production has fallen by 350,000 b/d. According to the cartel’s report, crude oil production has fallen by 350,000 barrels per day between December and January to 26.3 million barrels per day. The main reduction is due to 162,000 barrels per day less from Libya, as a result of internal conflicts in the country. Kuwait and Iraq have also seen their production fall sharply by 109,000 and 98,000…
Link Securities | According to OPEC’s monthly report, global oil demand will grow by 2.2 million barrels per day (mbd) in 2024, which means that the cartel’s analysts have maintained their estimates from the previous month unchanged. Thus, demand for crude oil will reach 104.4 mbd in 2024. In that year, according to OPEC, demand will be driven by strong demand for air travel and healthy road mobility, including diesel…
Bankinter: Angola is leaving OPEC. As a reference, it produces around 1.1Mbd (OPEC+ approx. 38.5Mbd). Opinion of the analysis team: Negative news for oil (Brent $79.4; -0.4%), which is positive for the market and the cycle. Once again, the lack of consensus among cartel members is evident. At the last meeting they were slow to reach an agreement precisely because the main producers refused to introduce cuts. On the other…
BancaMarch: Saudi Arabia’s energy minister has emphatically warned that the cuts imposed by OPEC+ on oil production could extend beyond March. Five days ago, news came out of the agreement reached by member countries on 30 November to reduce supply by 2.2 million barrels per day, with a deadline of March 2024. Saudi Arabia, which is concentrating the greatest efforts to contain supply, has accumulated almost half of the cuts…