Link Securities | The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported on Friday that Russia’s government had that day announced that it plans to cut its oil production by about 500,000 barrels per day, or about 5 percent, starting next month, in a move it said was in response to Western sanctions. The newspaper notes that Friday’s move is the first in which Russia telegraphed a specific response to oil markets to…
F. Rodríguez| According to the conservation organisation World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF) and the think tank Climate & Company, the European taxonomy is one of 29 being developed around the world, 14 of them, including that of the EU, within the group of G20 countries: Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Russia, South Africa, South Korea, Turkey and the United Kingdom. Its report last year, When finance…
Alphavalue /Divacons | The current political instability in Brazil could harm Spanish companies with an interest in the country. The police have regained control of Congress, the presidential palace, and the Supreme Court after the violent invasion carried out by supporters of Jair Bolsonaro. However, and despite the fact that Bolsonaro has distanced himself from the actions of the protestors, the political tension continues. Among the Spanish companies most exposed…
J.P. Marín-Arrese | Last Friday, Wall Street jumped on employment and services data. Jobs openings, while better than expected, signalled a downward path. The service sector contracted for the first time till 2020. The ensuing bullish reaction shows the markets bet the Fed might undertake a U-turn earlier than pointed out in the last FOMC minutes. Investors seem to outwit the Fed, disregarding its determination to keep rates tight enough…
J.P. Marín-Arrese | Kevin McCarthy’s failed attempts to snatch election as Congress Speaker not only signals a severe divide within the Republican party. It may also hamper the ability to run the country. Rebels aim to block the White House agenda, even launch an impeachment against Biden, and seem ready to put the US Government in default by refusing to increase the debt ceiling next October. They will likely question…
Alicia García Herrero * (Natixis) | It is hard to imagine a more momentous meeting than the one Presidents Joe Biden and Xi Jinping just held on the sidelines of the Group of Twenty meeting in Bali. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s absence certainly made things easier, as it opened the door for the G20 communiqué to address the Ukraine war, but it is not going to go beyond a compromise…
Fernando González Urbaneja | We are learning in these uncertain times that it is all bulls up to the tail, that the electoral results are those that are certified by the bodies in charge of controlling the votes. And that often takes time. In Brazil, the electronic system made it possible to verify Lula’s victory on election night itself, albeit by a very small margin, but enough to avoid any…
Matt Christensen (Allianz GI) | The COP27 climate summit takes place in Egypt in November, providing a check-in on global progress towards net zero in a year dominated by economic and geopolitical pressures. There are reasons to be optimistic. • The focus of this year’s COP27 is on “delivery” after an eventful year that has also revealed the flaws in our existing energy mix• The financial sector will be in…
Former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won the second round of the presidential elections in Brazil on Sunday with 50.84% of the votes, compared to 49.16% for the current president, Jair Bolsonaro, with 99.10% of the ballot boxes counted. The leader of the Workers’ Party (PT), who governed between 2003 and 2010, will once again occupy the presidency of an extremely divided Brazil from 1 January 2023 and for…
Allianz GI | The market reaction to the conclusion of China’s Party Congress is telling. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (a gauge of key China stocks listed in Hong Kong) fell more than 7% on the first day of trading after the Congress. The CSI 300 (onshore China’s equivalent of the S&P 500) as well as the broader Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges saw a far more muted reaction.1…