Where the euro may go in 2018 is such a central question and will have implications for global asset markets around the world. Christopher Gannatti, head of research at Wisdom Tree, thinks that “forecasting currencies is very much like putting together a puzzle”, at times requiring just as much art as data.
J.L.M. Campuzano | The ECB calculates that its extreme expansionary monetary measures have contributed nearly two points to European growth since 2014. The question now is whether the benefits of maintaining them outweigh the risks of prolonging excessively lax financial conditions too long.
Giacomo Bracci | The result of the latest Italian political elections has been interpreted by many observers as the outcome of deep, popular discontent. Recent developments in the country have also revived the possibility once again of an Italexit in the political debate of the entire euro area.
Ofelia Marín-Lozano |The variations in the exchange rate, over short periods of time like quarters, sales performances or results expressed in euros which can lead to simple, erroneous conclusions. This is even more true in the case of a European company with a greater weighting in markets where the dollar is the currency of reference. That is to say in any market outside, if not the Eurozone, then at least Europe.
The “eternal return” to a proposal to leave the euro seems to be an irresistable force for some people. A current case in point is Italy, but there are a couple of interesting precedents in the files, like Greece and Ireland.
The IMF is forecasting global growth of over 3.9% in 2018. For the Eurozone, the forecast is for growth of 2.2%. The fifth year of economic expansion, confirming sustained and diversified growth. And the Washington-based organisation is calling for greater integration in the euro area.
If I haven’t got the wrong end of the stick, Italy plans is to create a parallel currency to the euro, guaranteed by the Italian government, but which I don’t know who will control. A Bank of Italy? The government would issue these BOT, endorse them with the BI, which would give it the money to be shared out amongst the unpaid creditors. It seems a lot like Helicopter Money.
The Euro was by far the best performing G10 currency in 2017, returning 15 % over the period. ETF Securities’ analysts expect that the Euro should end Q1 2018 under the 1.20 level, broadly in line with Bloomberg consensus estimates of 1.19. However, they think “this displays the downside risk to the Euro remain elevated”.
The US dollar was broadly stable over the past month, up against the euro and Japan’s yen but down against the New Zealand dollar and sterling. Elsewhere the Norwegian krone depreciated further, hitting new lows. The market appears to lack conviction in terms of the direction of the greenback.
Ever since December last year, when it reached its low point, almost at parity with the dollar, the euro has not stopped rising. And the European economy is doing much better than that of the US.