The latest batch of economic growth numbers corroborate a picture which we started to see last year, namely that the extent of the Eurozone recovery is widening. Germany is no longer the sole growth driver. Countries like Spain are catching up.
James Alexander | As some debate raged in the corridors of the ECB about both Draghi’s successor and over when and how to end the QE for the EUR, the common currency remained strong, helping keep the USD weak.
Francisco Vidal | The emphasis put on the Federal Reserve’s actions and the US’ economy’s favourable performance over the last few years led to the debate over the possibility of the euro and the dollar reaching parity, which gained momentum at end-2016 and at the start of 2017. But the euro’s fundamentals are currently better than expected and, in the future, can count on the support of the ECB.
I don’t have the slightest doubt that Draghi is going to do the impossible to keep the euro, but it doesn’t depend on him. The euro is a false project which should have happened when things were more settled, in other words, as Draghi says, “when there was a single market.”
Germany’s external trade figures are an insult for the EU and the euro- it reaches the incredible figure of 300 billion euros, or 9% of GDP. It doesn’t look like the US would be too unhappy about getting rid of the single currency, with the help of Le Pen and others.
“In principal, the euro is a good idea. The aim is to create a big economic space without any monetary barriers, like the US. But a common space implies that member states are prepared to take each other into consideration as far as their economic, financial and wage policies are concerned,” says Peter Bofinger, one of the five ‘wise men’ who make up the German Council of Economic Experts.
Italy is a founding country of Europe and the euro. It has an ailing economy, which is not obvious at first sight, but its political weakness is evident. Italy is sick because of northern Europe’s austerity policies. And it can’t be expected to recover on its own because any crisis in its illness might cause the euro to take a definitive tumble.
Referenda stand as a dangerous gamble nowadays. Only the Swiss can manage them with relative ease. Populism can boast of triggering another staggering crisis in Europe as voters rejected by a wide majority the Constitutional reform tabled by the Italian PM. Opposition to his initiative also came from fellow members of the Democratic Party, such as D’Alema, and respected politicians like Monti. Conceding defeat, Mr Renzi has resigned from office throwing the country into utter disarray.
AXA IM | Those wishing for a successful constitutional reform in Italy need to be aware that it could actually trigger a referendum on the euro. Growing nerves here likely explain the widening of the spread between German and Italian bonds as investors try to hedge ‘currency’ risk.
In an internal report, the IMF has confessed to errors linked to the bailouts in which it participated during the euro crisis, according to what Ambrose Evans-Prichard tells us. Just what the euro needed: explicit recognition, in black and white, that nothing could be done about the “infamy of competitive devaluation.”