Link Securities | According to Bloomberg, citing sources close to the issue, the European Commission is considering opening disciplinary proceedings against Italy next week because of its inability to control its debt.
If both parties do reach an agreement over the Italian budget, eurozone bond and equity markets will have something to celebrate.
Christmas came early this year in France as President Emmanuel Macron handed out gifts to his constituents like an end of the year bonus and a €100 increase of the minimum wage, explicitly not paid by employers. However, the European Union may not join in the celebrative Christmas conga as this spending spree will send the French budget deficit far north of what European budget rules allow.
The EC found yesterday that Italy is in breach of the European Union’s debt criterion, with a debt/GDP ratio of 131.2% for 2017, significantly above the EU’s threshold of 60%. According to the firm Julius Baer, it is obviou the 60% target introduced in the Maastricht Treaty in the early 1990s cannot be binding anymore, given the elevated debt levels across European countries.
The European Union lived an intense day on Tuesday. UK agreed on deal with the EU, but now the question if it will pass the test. Also Italy announced no changes in budget, while the IMF showed a cautious view. Further confrontation ahead between Rome and Brussels is expected. As commented by analysts at Julius Baer, “the EC is trapped in a philosophy of austerity whilst the Italian government is committed to fulfilling the election promises of a fiscal boost.”
“The narrative of expected compromises, a watering down of stances and the serving of another “Brussel’s fudge” seems to have become less convincing after the EU rejected the Italian budget proposal in an unprecedented move,” says analysts at Monex Europe regarding the rejection of Italy’s budgetary plans. In fact, for the first time in the history of the EU, the European Commission has rejected a draft budget proposal of a member country, while sounds from the Italian camp have an equally confrontational ring to it.
Italy’s budget deficit of – 2.4% of GDP for the period 2019/2021 presented by the government increased the debt premium of 50bp to 280 bp and a 4% fall in the FTSE-MIB.This rise in the risk premium impacts negatively on the Italian banks in fundamentally three ways.
Last week the Italian Government approved a public deficit targets of – 2.4% of GDP for 2019-21 which will be included in the draft budget for 2019. The Minister of Finance, Giovanni Tria, has been under considerable pressure from the Lega and Five Stars, and has had to accommodate their electoral promises in the budget. One of the most important consequences of developing these budget will be a ferocious debate with the EU.
“The unifying factor in the Italian coalition of two disparate political parties is firm agreement on the flaws of the EU’s deficit limits, and the risk is that any conciliation with the EU fronted by the Minister of Economy and Finances Giovanni Tria may amount to nothing more than political expedience,” commented today Neil Mellor Senior Currency Strategist at BNY Mellon.
Now “the waters appear to have calmed” in Italy, analysts at Intermoney, however, believe we will see more episodes of tension originating in Italy. The key moment is likely to come at the end of the summer or in the autumn. This situation should be seen as a scenario for tension rather than rupture, although contagion to other peripheral economies could be possible.