BofA Global Research | We stay overweight France, Spain and Italy, as they should benefit from a continued rebound in PMIs. We raise the UK to marketweight after the recent undershoot. We remain marketweight Germany, as it discounts much good news. We are underweight Switzerland, as it tends to underperform when improving growth momentum lifts bond yields.
The Recovery Fund exceeds the Merkel/Macron proposals with an amount of €750 billion euros (equivalent to 5.4% of the EU27’s annual GDP). Italy and Spain would be the countries to most benefit. This was something that was quickly reflected in the performance of peripheral credit on Wednesday, especially in the financial sector, with improvements on average of about 10bp in the CDS of banks in both countries. For its part, France and Germany will receive transfers of 39 Bn and 29 Bn, respectively.
Asad Zangana (Schroeders) | Many economies are facing a deep recession as a result of Covid-19, but Italy went into this crisis in a more precarious situation than most. The country stands out as the most likely candidate to exit the eurozone for several reasons. First, with gross debt estimated at 135% of GDP in 2019, it faces a significant challenge in both servicing its debt, but also refinancing it.
The current scenario forces stimuli and, at last, the Eurogroup is beginning to propose some important measures such as the agreement to promote fiscal measures throughout the Eurozone worth 1% of GDP in 2020, or guarantee schemes and tax deferral equivalent to 10% of GDP. Furthermore, Spain’s Prime Minister, Pedro Sanchez, announced a much more ambitious plan, mobilising up to 200 Bn euros, of which 83 Bn euros will be private, mainly from banks. The shock plan is equivalent to 20% of the national wealth (11.7% taking into account the State’s share).
According to the latest aggregate Tourism Satellite Account from Eurostat, tourism consumption in Italy amounted to 146.33 Bn€, while the country’s GDP entered 2020 with a negative drag effect of 0.2%. European partners must be more worried about the potential upheaval in the country’s industry: the second largest in Europe. The key is that almost a third of its production is intermediate goods. Therefore any disruption in Italy’s manufacturing activity would be trasmitted to their European counterparts.
Endesa board of directors includes Italian members of Enel, such as the CEO of the Italian energy company, Francesco Starace, who is vice president of the Spanish company, and who, due to this plan, did not attend the meeting of the company’s governing body convened to approve the company’s last year’s results.
Strong general falls in the airline sector on Monday due to the spread of the coronavirus in Italy. According to Morgan Stanley data, 70-100% of the European airlines profits are made in the period from April to September, so a fall in demand or flight cancellations can have a strong negative impact.
Portugal’s political stability and its government’s renewed commitment to consolidate public finances will keep its public debt ratio on a firm downward path, in contrast with Spain and Italy. Portugal’s economic and fiscal adjustment since the crisis has been impressive, says Scope Ratings.
A. Menut and A. Tentori (AXA IM) | Italian politics are back at centre stage, with Lega party leader Matteo Salvini unexpectedly triggering a government crisis and making way for what in many ways is yet another spurious coalition. The positive political climate, more European Union-friendly, together with non-negative – although weak – growth should be encouraging for markets.
Link Securities | We highlight the negative impact that the new conflict between the European Commission (EC) and the populist government of Italy is having on the European securities markets and on the euro. Rome has not taken the necessary measures to contain the public deficit, which it will lead to a further increase in Italian public debt, whose weight could surpass 135% of GDP in two years.